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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Sp Lisbon

S S U S S

4–0

Full-time

Tondela

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

80%

20%

Points per game

2,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

26 Shots 3

15 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 11

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Tondela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Porto	6	3	1	2	+6	10
4	Santa Clara	6	3	1	2	+2	10
5	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+3	9
7	Rio Ave	6	2	3	1	+0	9
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Moreirense	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Nacional	6	1	4	1	+0	7
11	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Famalicao	5	1	3	1	-3	6
14	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Tondela	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Portimonense	6	1	1	4	-4	4
17	Boavista	5	0	3	2	-6	3
18	Farense	6	0	2	4	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Moreirense	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Pacos Ferreira	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Tondela	3	1	1	1	-3	4
11	Nacional	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Belenenses	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-4	2
16	Farense	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Guimaraes	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Porto	3	1	1	1	+4	4
8	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Boavista	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Portimonense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Farense	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Gil Vicente	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.