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Primeira Liga
Referee: Fábio Veríssimo
Tondela
S T U S T
1–0
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 10/9 matches
Win Ø 43%
30%
56%
Points per game
1,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
40%
67%
Both score Ø 65%
40%
89%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

30% Possession 70%
5 Shots 15
3 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 7
0 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Tondela 7. · Sp Lisbon 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 11 10 0 1 +21 30
2 Porto 10 8 1 1 +19 25
3 Famalicao 9 7 1 1 +7 22
4 Sp Lisbon 9 5 2 2 +5 17
5 Guimaraes 10 4 4 2 +7 16
6 Boavista 9 3 6 0 +4 15
7 Tondela 10 3 4 3 +0 13
8 Santa Clara 10 3 4 3 -2 13
9 Rio Ave 10 3 3 4 +1 12
10 Moreirense 11 2 5 4 -2 11
11 Sp Braga 10 3 2 5 -4 11
12 Gil Vicente 11 2 5 4 -4 11
13 Maritimo 11 2 5 4 -5 11
14 Setubal 9 1 6 2 -4 9
15 Vitoria Setubal 9 1 6 2 -4 9
16 Belenenses 9 2 2 5 -9 8
17 Portimonense 10 1 4 5 -8 7
18 Pacos Ferreira 9 1 2 6 -10 5
19 Aves 9 1 0 8 -12 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tondela Sp Lisbon
Xavier 🟨
5′
11′
🟨 Idrissa Doumbia
Filipe Ferreira 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–0
Richard Rodrigues 🔁
↦ António Xavier
46′
Cláudio Ramos 🟨
49′
J. Toro 🔁
↦ T. Štrkalj
59′
63′
🔁 Jesé
↦ Luiz Phellype
69′
🔁 Eduardo Henrique
↦ I. Doumbia
71′
🟨 Eduardo Henrique
João Pedro 🟨
73′
Jaquité 🔁
↦ João Pedro
75′
79′
🔁 Rafael Camacho
↦ Y. Bolasie
1–0 Bruno Wilson
Pepelu
88′
90′
🟨 Luciano Vietto
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Tondela

5-4-1
1 Cláudio Ramos G
23 Yohan Tavares D
30 Filipe Ferreira D
3 Bruno Wilson D
18 F. Moufi D
94 Philipe Sampaio D
8 João Pedro M
14 Pepelu M
7 António Xavier M
15 J. Murillo M
28 T. Štrkalj F
Bench (7)
77 Richard Rodrigues
70 J. Toro
5 Jaquité
17 João Reis
34 Ricardo Alves
11 R. Castillo
99 B. Niasse

Coach: Natxo González

Sp Lisbon

4-3-1-2
1 Renan Ribeiro G
4 S. Coates D
13 S. Ristovski D
3 Tiago Ilori D
9 M. Acuña D
8 Bruno Fernandes M
27 Miguel Luís M
98 I. Doumbia M
89 Y. Bolasie F
10 L. Vietto M
29 Luiz Phellype F
Bench (7)
21 Jesé
5 Eduardo Henrique
7 Rafael Camacho
14 Luís Carlos
81 Luís Maximiano
93 Rodrigo Fernandes
26 C. Borja

Coach: Emanuel Ferro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,55
U
3,81
B
1,71
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,70
U2,5 ✓
2,12
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.