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Primeira Liga
Referee: Tiago Martins
Sp Lisbon
S S U S S
1–0
Full-time
Guimaraes
U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,8
3,8
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
0,3
2,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 63%
83%
43%
Points per game
2,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
43%
52%
Both score Ø 41%
39%
43%
Average goals
2,4
2,5
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

68% Possession 32%
10 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Guimaraes 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 23 19 4 0 +34 61
2 Porto 24 16 6 2 +28 54
3 Sp Braga 23 16 2 5 +21 50
4 Benfica 23 14 6 3 +23 48
5 Pacos Ferreira 24 13 5 6 +10 44
6 Guimaraes 23 10 5 8 +0 35
7 Santa Clara 24 9 5 10 +1 32
8 Moreirense 24 7 9 8 -7 30
9 Rio Ave 23 6 8 9 -7 26
10 Belenenses 23 5 10 8 -7 25
11 Gil Vicente 24 7 4 13 -9 25
12 Tondela 24 7 4 13 -16 25
13 Portimonense 24 6 5 13 -8 23
14 Boavista 23 4 9 10 -12 21
15 Nacional 24 5 6 13 -12 21
16 Maritimo 23 6 3 14 -12 21
17 Famalicao 23 4 8 11 -17 20
18 Farense 23 4 7 12 -10 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes
Tiago Tomás ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
29′
1–0 Gonçalo Inácio
42′
João Palhinha ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
44′
Half-time 1–0
66′
🔁 Bruno Duarte
↦ O. Estupiñán
66′
🔁 André Almeida
↦ André Amaro
Luís Neto 🟨
69′
Paulinho 🔁
↦ Tiago Tomás
71′
Bruno Tabata 🔁
↦ Daniel Bragança
71′
João Mário 🟨
72′
77′
🔁 Miguel Luís
↦ André André
77′
🔁 Ricardo Quaresma
↦ M. Edwards
Dario Essugo 🔁
↦ João Mário
84′
Matheus Reis 🔁
↦ Nuno Mendes
85′
87′
🔁 N. Holm
↦ F. Sacko
89′
🟨 Pepelu
Jovane Cabral 🔁
↦ Pedro Gonçalves
89′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 Adán G
13 Luís Carlos D
3 Z. Feddal D
24 Pedro Porro M
5 Nuno Mendes M
52 Gonçalo Inácio D
17 João Mário M
6 João Palhinha M
68 Daniel Bragança F
28 Pedro Gonçalves F
19 Tiago Tomás F
Bench (9)
21 Paulinho
7 Bruno Tabata
84 Dario Essugo
2 Matheus Reis
77 Jovane Cabral
71 Flávio Nazinho
96 Joelson Fernandes
81 Luís Maximiano
72 Eduardo Quaresma

Coach: Emanuel Ferro

Guimaraes

3-4-3
1 Bruno Varela G
44 Jorge Fernandes D
17 F. Sacko M
74 André Amaro D
11 André André M
24 M. Agu D
19 Pepelu M
23 Rúben Lameiras M
16 Rochinha F
31 O. Estupiñán F
7 M. Edwards F
Bench (9)
9 Bruno Duarte
70 André Almeida
88 Miguel Luís
10 Ricardo Quaresma
86 N. Holm
60 Z. Ouattara
29 M. Trmal
25 A. Wakaso
14 G. Mensah

Coach: João Henriques

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,50
U
3,91
B
6,92
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,05
U2,5 ✓
1,76
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.