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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Belenenses

T S T T U

1–4

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

11%

79%

Points per game

0,6

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

32%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,6

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

32% Possession 68%

6 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

23 Free kicks against 19

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	20	18	2	0	+39	56
2	Sp Lisbon	19	15	2	2	+23	47
3	Benfica	20	14	2	4	+35	44
4	Sp Braga	20	11	5	4	+16	38
5	Gil Vicente	20	9	6	5	+8	33
6	Guimaraes	20	7	6	7	+5	27
7	Estoril	20	6	8	6	+1	26
8	Portimonense	20	7	4	9	-2	25
9	Maritimo	20	6	6	8	-5	24
10	Santa Clara	20	6	5	9	-14	23
11	Vizela	20	5	7	8	-12	22
12	Pacos Ferreira	20	4	8	8	-9	20
13	Tondela	20	6	2	12	-12	20
14	Boavista	20	3	10	7	-9	19
15	Arouca	20	4	6	10	-17	18
16	Famalicao	20	3	8	9	-12	17
17	Moreirense	20	3	7	10	-13	16
18	Belenenses	19	2	6	11	-22	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+12	25
3	Sp Braga	11	6	3	2	+11	21
4	Benfica	10	6	1	3	+14	19
5	Santa Clara	11	5	3	3	-5	18
6	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+8	17
7	Boavista	10	3	6	1	+3	15
8	Gil Vicente	10	4	2	4	+2	14
9	Maritimo	9	3	4	2	+4	13
10	Vizela	11	3	4	4	-4	13
11	Tondela	10	4	0	6	-4	12
12	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-3	10
13	Arouca	9	3	1	5	-10	10
14	Estoril	10	1	6	3	-2	9
15	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Portimonense	11	2	3	6	-6	9
17	Famalicao	10	1	5	4	-7	8
18	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-12	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+21	25
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+11	22
4	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Estoril	10	5	2	3	+3	17
7	Portimonense	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-9	11
9	Guimaraes	11	2	4	5	-3	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-6	10
11	Famalicao	10	2	3	5	-5	9
12	Vizela	9	2	3	4	-8	9
13	Arouca	11	1	5	5	-7	8
14	Tondela	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Moreirense	11	1	4	6	-10	7
16	Santa Clara	9	1	2	6	-9	5
17	Belenenses	10	0	4	6	-10	4
18	Boavista	10	0	4	6	-12	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.