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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Mota
Belenenses
T T T S T
1–4
Full-time
Porto
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
0,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,3
Scored
0,3
2,7
Conceded
2,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+2,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 50%
12%
88%
Points per game
0,6
2,8
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
29%
76%
Both score Ø 47%
35%
59%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
0,5
2,6
Conceded
1,6
0,6
Goal diff per game
-1,1
+1,9
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

29% Possession 71%
4 Shots 24
2 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 6
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 8
2 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 16
5 Yellow cards 3
2 Red cards 0
The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Porto 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 17 15 2 0 +33 47
2 Sp Lisbon 18 15 2 1 +24 47
3 Benfica 18 13 2 3 +34 41
4 Sp Braga 18 9 5 4 +13 32
5 Gil Vicente 18 7 6 5 +6 27
6 Estoril 17 6 7 4 +4 25
7 Portimonense 17 7 3 7 +0 24
8 Guimaraes 17 6 5 6 +4 23
9 Maritimo 18 6 5 7 -4 23
10 Boavista 18 3 9 6 -8 18
11 Pacos Ferreira 18 4 6 8 -9 18
12 Tondela 18 5 2 11 -12 17
13 Santa Clara 18 4 5 9 -17 17
14 Moreirense 18 3 7 8 -9 16
15 Famalicao 18 3 7 8 -10 16
16 Vizela 18 3 7 8 -14 16
17 Arouca 17 3 5 9 -16 14
18 Belenenses 17 2 5 10 -19 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Belenenses Porto
Abel Camará 🟥
-5′
-5′
🟨 Pepe
Sphephelo Sithole 🟨
4′
Diogo Calila 🟨
5′
7′
🟨 Bruno Costa
1–0 Abel Camará
Diogo Calila
13′
Abel Camará 🟨
26′
Sphephelo Sithole 🟨
31′
Sphephelo Sithole 🟥
31′
34′
Evanilson 1–1
Fábio Vieira
36′
ℹ️ Evanilson
VAR: Goal confirmed
39′
🔁 M. Taremi
↦ Bruno Costa
Half-time 1–1
57′
🔁 Francisco Conceição
↦ Vitinha
58′
Evanilson 1–2
Francisco Conceição
61′
M. Taremi 1–3
Fábio Vieira
Alisson Safira 🔁
↦ Abel Camará
63′
Danny Henriques 🔁
↦ T. Phete
74′
82′
🔁 M. Grujić
↦ Pepê Aquino
82′
🔁 João Mendes
↦ Wendell
82′
🔁 Gonçalo Borges
↦ L. Díaz
A. Luković 🔁
↦ Afonso Sousa
84′
84′
Evanilson 1–4
Fábio Vieira
Safira 🟨
91′
92′
🟨 Mateus Uribe
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Belenenses

3-4-3
1 Luiz Felipe G
32 Yohan Tavares D
27 C. Akas D
2 Diogo Calila M
4 Tomás Ribeiro D
5 Nilton Varela M
21 T. Phete M
8 S. Sithole M
10 Afonso Sousa F
29 Abel Camará F
7 Pedro Nuno F
Bench (9)
25 Alisson Safira
14 Danny Henriques
11 A. Luković
13 Jójó
23 J. van der Gaag
49 Tomás Castro
99 Álvaro Ramalho
16 César Sousa
18 A. Ndour

Coach: Franclim Carvalho

Porto

4-2-3-1
99 Diogo Costa G
22 Wendell D
19 C. Mbemba D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
8 M. Uribe M
28 Bruno Costa D
20 Vitinha M
50 Fábio Vieira M
11 Pepê Aquino M
7 L. Díaz M
30 Evanilson F
Bench (9)
9 M. Taremi
10 Francisco Conceição
16 M. Grujić
55 João Mendes
70 Gonçalo Borges
29 Toni Martínez
3 Pepe
43 João Marcelo
1 A. Marchesín

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
15,58
U
6,93
B ✓
1,18
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,51
U2,5
2,51
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Mota · 73 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.