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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Tondela

S T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Belenenses

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 19%

25%

13%

Points per game

0,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

71%

33%

Both score Ø 53%

63%

42%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,6

Conceded

2,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

7 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Belenenses 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	4	0	+44	67
2	Sp Lisbon	25	19	4	2	+33	61
3	Benfica	25	18	3	4	+42	57
4	Sp Braga	25	13	7	5	+17	46
5	Gil Vicente	25	11	9	5	+11	42
6	Guimaraes	25	9	6	10	+1	33
7	Maritimo	25	8	8	9	-2	32
8	Estoril	25	7	10	8	-2	31
9	Portimonense	25	7	8	10	-3	29
10	Santa Clara	25	7	8	10	-13	29
11	Pacos Ferreira	25	6	9	10	-9	27
12	Famalicao	25	6	8	11	-8	26
13	Boavista	25	4	14	7	-8	26
14	Vizela	25	5	9	11	-16	24
15	Arouca	25	5	7	13	-22	22
16	Tondela	24	6	2	16	-17	20
17	Moreirense	25	4	8	13	-17	20
18	Belenenses	24	3	6	15	-31	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
2	Porto	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Benfica	12	8	1	3	+18	25
4	Sp Braga	13	7	4	2	+12	25
5	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+8	23
6	Santa Clara	13	6	4	3	-3	22
7	Gil Vicente	13	5	4	4	+4	19
8	Boavista	13	3	9	1	+3	18
9	Maritimo	12	3	6	3	+3	15
10	Famalicao	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	5	5	-4	14
12	Vizela	13	3	5	5	-5	14
13	Moreirense	12	3	3	6	-2	12
14	Estoril	12	2	6	4	-2	12
15	Tondela	12	4	0	8	-7	12
16	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-15	11
17	Belenenses	12	3	2	7	-16	11
18	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+23	35
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Sp Lisbon	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Gil Vicente	12	6	5	1	+7	23
5	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Portimonense	12	5	4	3	+4	19
7	Estoril	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	4	5	-5	13
10	Famalicao	13	3	3	7	-7	12
11	Arouca	13	2	5	6	-7	11
12	Guimaraes	13	2	4	7	-7	10
13	Vizela	12	2	4	6	-11	10
14	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-10	8
15	Boavista	12	1	5	6	-11	8
16	Moreirense	13	1	5	7	-15	8
17	Santa Clara	12	1	4	7	-10	7
18	Belenenses	12	0	4	8	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.