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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Belenenses

U S U T T

1–1

Full-time

Tondela

U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 26%

28%

23%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

37%

Both score Ø 39%

41%

37%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

61% Possession 39%

11 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Belenenses 17. · Tondela 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	24	4	3	+47	76
2	Benfica	31	21	5	5	+37	68
3	Sp Lisbon	29	17	4	8	+18	55
4	Sp Braga	31	16	5	10	+14	53
5	Rio Ave	31	15	8	8	+12	53
6	Famalicao	30	13	9	8	+3	48
7	Guimaraes	31	12	11	8	+18	47
8	Boavista	31	11	8	12	-4	41
9	Moreirense	31	9	13	9	+3	40
10	Santa Clara	31	10	10	11	-6	40
11	Gil Vicente	30	9	10	11	-4	37
12	Maritimo	31	7	12	12	-9	33
13	Pacos Ferreira	30	9	4	17	-15	31
14	Tondela	30	7	9	14	-15	30
15	Setubal	29	6	12	11	-15	30
16	Vitoria Setubal	29	6	12	11	-15	30
17	Belenenses	29	8	6	15	-21	30
18	Portimonense	31	5	14	12	-15	29
19	Aves	30	4	2	24	-33	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+29	40
2	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+21	32
3	Sp Lisbon	14	10	0	4	+10	30
4	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+9	30
5	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+14	28
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+5	28
7	Rio Ave	16	6	5	5	+4	23
8	Moreirense	15	6	5	4	+4	23
9	Maritimo	16	5	7	4	+3	22
10	Gil Vicente	15	5	7	3	+3	22
11	Boavista	16	6	4	6	+2	22
12	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Portimonense	15	3	8	4	-2	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	2	9	-5	17
15	Setubal	14	3	7	4	-5	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	7	4	-5	16
17	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
18	Tondela	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Aves	15	3	1	11	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Rio Ave	15	9	3	3	+8	30
4	Sp Lisbon	15	7	4	4	+8	25
5	Sp Braga	16	7	2	7	+5	23
6	Santa Clara	16	5	6	5	-1	21
7	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-2	20
8	Guimaraes	15	4	7	4	+4	19
9	Tondela	15	5	4	6	-4	19
10	Boavista	15	5	4	6	-6	19
11	Moreirense	16	3	8	5	-1	17
12	Gil Vicente	15	4	3	8	-7	15
13	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-8	15
14	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	2	8	-10	14
15	Setubal	15	3	5	7	-10	14
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	5	7	-10	14
17	Portimonense	16	2	6	8	-13	12
18	Maritimo	15	2	5	8	-12	11
19	Aves	15	1	1	13	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.