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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Burnley

T T S T U

3–4

Full-time

Brentford

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 30%

15%

44%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

52%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

0,97 xG 2,25

41% Possession 59%

12 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 19. · Brentford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	28	18	7	3	+35	+29.1	61
2	Man City	27	17	5	5	+31	+19.0	56
3	Aston Villa	28	15	6	7	+8	-4.2	51
4	Man United	27	13	9	5	+11	+14.0	48
5	Chelsea	27	12	9	6	+17	+14.9	45
6	Liverpool	27	13	6	8	+7	+12.7	45
7	Brentford	27	12	4	11	+3	+6.0	40
8	Bournemouth	28	9	12	7	-2	+0.8	39
9	Everton	27	10	7	10	-2	-8.1	37
10	Fulham	27	11	4	12	-3	-6.3	37
11	Sunderland	28	9	10	9	-5	-15.0	37
12	Newcastle	27	10	6	11	-1	+8.0	36
13	Crystal Palace	27	9	8	10	-3	+7.9	35
14	Brighton	27	8	10	9	+2	+1.9	34
15	Leeds	27	7	10	10	-9	-1.9	31
16	Tottenham	27	7	8	12	-4	-11.2	29
17	Nott'm Forest	27	7	6	14	-14	-8.6	27
18	West Ham	27	6	7	14	-17	-11.7	25
19	Burnley	27	4	7	16	-23	-30.4	19
20	Wolves	29	2	7	20	-31	-17.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+25	+13.2	35
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.8	32
3	Aston Villa	14	9	2	3	+9	+2.8	29
4	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	+12.1	27
5	Sunderland	14	7	5	2	+9	-3.4	26
6	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+9	+8.6	25
7	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+7	+9.3	24
8	Bournemouth	14	6	6	2	+6	+10.1	24
9	Chelsea	14	6	5	3	+7	+8.9	23
10	Fulham	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.3	23
11	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+4	+9.4	23
12	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+4	+6.8	22
13	Brighton	13	5	6	2	+6	+3.6	21
14	Everton	14	4	4	6	-3	-1.6	16
15	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	+8.4	15
16	Nott'm Forest	14	3	4	7	-6	+0.7	13
17	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
18	Tottenham	14	2	4	8	-5	-3.7	10
19	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-7	-10.6	10
20	Wolves	15	2	3	10	-15	-6.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	8	5	2	+12	+13.3	29
2	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+10	+6.0	22
3	Aston Villa	14	6	4	4	-1	-7.0	22
4	Man City	13	6	3	4	+6	+5.8	21
5	Man United	14	5	6	3	+1	+1.9	21
6	Everton	13	6	3	4	+1	-6.5	21
7	Liverpool	14	6	3	5	+0	+3.4	21
8	Crystal Palace	13	6	2	5	+1	-0.5	20
9	Tottenham	13	5	4	4	+1	-7.5	19
10	Brentford	13	5	0	8	-6	-2.6	15
11	Bournemouth	14	3	6	5	-8	-9.3	15
12	Nott'm Forest	13	4	2	7	-8	-9.3	14
13	Fulham	14	4	2	8	-9	-5.0	14
14	Brighton	14	3	4	7	-4	-1.7	13
15	Newcastle	14	3	4	7	-5	-1.3	13
16	West Ham	13	3	4	6	-7	-9.9	13
17	Sunderland	14	2	5	7	-14	-11.6	11
18	Leeds	14	1	6	7	-13	-8.7	9
19	Burnley	14	2	3	9	-16	-19.8	9
20	Wolves	14	0	4	10	-16	-10.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.