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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Leverkusen

U S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Mainz

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 39%

55%

22%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

59%

52%

Both score Ø 56%

55%

57%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,28 xG 0,74

66% Possession 34%

12 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 6. · Mainz 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	19	3	1	+64	+44.9	60
2	Dortmund	23	15	7	1	+27	+15.2	52
3	Hoffenheim	23	14	4	5	+19	+0.1	46
4	Stuttgart	23	13	4	6	+12	+5.2	43
5	RB Leipzig	23	12	5	6	+12	+10.7	41
6	Leverkusen	22	12	3	7	+15	+12.0	39
7	Freiburg	23	9	6	8	-3	+3.8	33
8	Ein Frankfurt	23	8	7	8	-3	-3.1	31
9	Augsburg	24	9	4	11	-11	-13.6	31
10	Union Berlin	23	7	7	9	-8	+1.4	28
11	Hamburg	22	6	8	8	-7	-6.4	26
12	FC Koln	24	6	6	12	-8	-6.3	24
13	Mainz	23	5	7	11	-12	-8.6	22
14	M'gladbach	23	5	7	11	-13	-6.5	22
15	Wolfsburg	23	5	5	13	-16	-11.7	20
16	St Pauli	23	5	5	13	-18	-14.3	20
17	Werder Bremen	23	4	7	12	-21	-9.0	19
18	Heidenheim	23	3	5	15	-29	-13.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	1	1	+36	+23.6	31
2	Dortmund	11	9	2	0	+18	+12.1	29
3	Stuttgart	11	8	2	1	+5	+3.4	26
4	Hoffenheim	11	8	0	3	+14	+3.7	24
5	Freiburg	11	7	3	1	+9	+10.4	24
6	RB Leipzig	12	7	2	3	+10	+8.5	23
7	Leverkusen	11	7	1	3	+14	+12.4	22
8	Augsburg	13	6	3	4	-2	-6.3	21
9	Hamburg	11	5	4	2	+5	+1.9	19
10	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	2	4	+2	+3.0	17
11	Union Berlin	12	4	5	3	+0	+2.7	17
12	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	+2	+1.3	15
13	St Pauli	11	4	3	4	-5	-3.1	15
14	Mainz	12	3	4	5	-1	+2.9	13
15	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-9	+2.0	13
16	M'gladbach	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.3	10
17	Heidenheim	12	2	4	6	-14	-7.9	10
18	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-7	-3.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	2	0	+28	+21.4	29
2	Dortmund	12	6	5	1	+9	+3.1	23
3	Hoffenheim	12	6	4	2	+5	-3.5	22
4	RB Leipzig	11	5	3	3	+2	+2.2	18
5	Stuttgart	12	5	2	5	+7	+1.8	17
6	Leverkusen	11	5	2	4	+1	-0.4	17
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-5	-6.1	14
8	M'gladbach	12	3	3	6	-5	-2.3	12
9	Union Berlin	11	3	2	6	-8	-1.3	11
10	Wolfsburg	11	3	2	6	-9	-8.6	11
11	Augsburg	11	3	1	7	-9	-7.3	10
12	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-10	-7.6	9
13	Mainz	11	2	3	6	-11	-11.6	9
14	Freiburg	12	2	3	7	-12	-6.6	9
15	Hamburg	11	1	4	6	-12	-8.3	7
16	Werder Bremen	12	1	3	8	-12	-11.0	6
17	St Pauli	12	1	2	9	-13	-11.2	5
18	Heidenheim	11	1	1	9	-15	-6.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.