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Premiership

Referee: K Clancy

Hearts

S T S T S

1–0

Full-time

Aberdeen

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Aberdeen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 47%

64%

30%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 38%

43%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,69 xG 0,36

54% Possession 46%

21 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hearts 1. · Aberdeen 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	28	18	6	4	+27	+11.2	60
2	Rangers	28	15	11	2	+26	+12.6	56
3	Celtic	27	17	3	7	+21	+15.6	54
4	Motherwell	27	13	11	3	+27	+12.2	50
5	Hibernian	28	12	9	7	+13	+1.1	45
6	Falkirk	28	11	6	11	-4	+2.4	39
7	Dundee United	27	6	12	9	-9	-10.6	30
8	Aberdeen	27	8	5	14	-10	-13.4	29
9	Dundee	27	7	6	14	-18	-4.4	27
10	St Mirren	27	5	8	14	-21	-0.9	23
11	Kilmarnock	28	4	9	15	-24	-11.8	21
12	Livingston	28	1	10	17	-28	-13.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	14	10	4	0	+18	+6.2	34
2	Celtic	14	10	1	3	+19	+13.0	31
3	Motherwell	14	9	4	1	+19	+11.2	31
4	Rangers	14	9	4	1	+15	+11.7	31
5	Hibernian	14	7	5	2	+13	+5.9	26
6	Falkirk	14	5	5	4	+3	+4.1	20
7	Dundee	12	5	2	5	-2	-1.5	17
8	St Mirren	14	4	5	5	-7	+3.0	17
9	Aberdeen	13	4	4	5	+3	-7.3	16
10	Dundee United	14	3	6	5	-5	-5.3	15
11	Kilmarnock	14	3	3	8	-8	-2.3	12
12	Livingston	14	1	5	8	-9	-6.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	14	8	2	4	+9	+4.9	26
2	Rangers	14	6	7	1	+11	+0.9	25
3	Celtic	13	7	2	4	+2	+2.6	23
4	Motherwell	13	4	7	2	+8	+1.0	19
5	Hibernian	14	5	4	5	+0	-4.7	19
6	Falkirk	14	6	1	7	-7	-1.8	19
7	Dundee United	13	3	6	4	-4	-5.3	15
8	Aberdeen	14	4	1	9	-13	-6.1	13
9	Dundee	15	2	4	9	-16	-2.9	10
10	Kilmarnock	14	1	6	7	-16	-9.6	9
11	St Mirren	13	1	3	9	-14	-3.8	6
12	Livingston	14	0	5	9	-19	-7.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.