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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Arouca

T S T U S

0–3

Full-time

Benfica

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 62%

41%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

47%

67%

Both score Ø 40%

47%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%

6 Shots 5

0 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Benfica 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	15	2	1	+33	47
2	Sp Braga	17	13	1	3	+26	40
3	Porto	17	12	3	2	+30	39
4	Sp Lisbon	17	10	2	5	+14	32
5	Casa Pia	18	9	3	6	+1	30
6	Guimaraes	18	8	3	7	-3	27
7	Arouca	17	7	5	5	-3	26
8	Vizela	18	7	3	8	+4	24
9	Boavista	17	7	3	7	-7	24
10	Chaves	18	5	7	6	-6	22
11	Rio Ave	18	5	6	7	-5	21
12	Famalicao	18	6	3	9	-6	21
13	Portimonense	18	6	2	10	-10	20
14	Estoril	17	5	4	8	-6	19
15	Gil Vicente	18	5	3	10	-8	18
16	Santa Clara	18	3	5	10	-11	14
17	Maritimo	17	3	4	10	-20	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	19	2	3	14	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	1	0	+21	25
2	Porto	8	7	0	1	+23	21
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	0	1	+16	21
4	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+4	20
5	Boavista	10	5	3	2	+0	18
6	Sp Braga	8	5	1	2	+10	16
7	Arouca	9	5	1	3	+3	16
8	Famalicao	9	5	1	3	+3	16
9	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	+0	14
10	Vizela	9	4	1	4	+5	13
11	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
12	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Gil Vicente	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Santa Clara	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Chaves	8	1	5	2	-1	8
16	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Estoril	7	2	2	3	-4	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	9	8	0	1	+16	24
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+12	22
3	Porto	9	5	3	1	+7	18
4	Casa Pia	8	5	1	2	+1	16
5	Chaves	10	4	2	4	-5	14
6	Vizela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	Sp Lisbon	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Estoril	10	3	2	5	-2	11
9	Arouca	8	2	4	2	-6	10
10	Portimonense	9	3	0	6	-8	9
11	Rio Ave	10	1	5	4	-7	8
12	Gil Vicente	9	2	1	6	-6	7
13	Guimaraes	8	2	1	5	-7	7
14	Boavista	7	2	0	5	-7	6
15	Santa Clara	9	1	2	6	-5	5
16	Famalicao	9	1	2	6	-9	5
17	Maritimo	9	1	2	6	-18	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.