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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Benfica

U S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

65% Possession 35%

17 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

8 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 2

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Benfica 8. · Arouca 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+2	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Vizela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
11	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Guimaraes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
7	Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
8	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-2	0
9	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-3	0
10	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-3	0
11	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.