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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Santa Clara

S S S T T

0–2

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Santa Clara Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 57%

64%

50%

Points per game

1,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

29%

57%

Both score Ø 40%

29%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,41 xG 1,58

29% Possession 71%

12 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Santa Clara 4. · Sp Braga 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	12	1	2	+27	+17.5	37
2	Sp Lisbon	14	12	0	2	+33	+28.0	36
3	Benfica	14	11	2	1	+26	+15.9	35
4	Santa Clara	14	9	0	5	+3	+7.9	27
5	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+9	+12.5	25
6	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+4	+3.4	22
7	Casa Pia	15	5	5	5	-2	-2.5	20
8	Moreirense	15	6	2	7	-3	+0.6	20
9	Famalicao	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.9	19
10	Gil Vicente	14	4	4	6	-7	-7.8	16
11	Rio Ave	14	4	4	6	-10	-11.1	16
12	Estoril	14	3	5	6	-9	-14.3	14
13	AVS	15	2	7	6	-11	-7.5	13
14	Boavista	15	2	6	7	-9	-2.7	12
15	Nacional	14	3	3	8	-11	-1.4	12
16	Estrela	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.2	12
17	Farense	15	3	3	9	-12	-12.9	12
18	Arouca	15	3	2	10	-17	-11.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+19	+16.8	24
2	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+20	+10.3	21
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+13	+12.5	18
4	Santa Clara	7	6	0	1	+4	+7.9	18
5	Moreirense	7	4	2	1	+2	-2.1	14
6	Guimaraes	6	4	1	1	+4	+3.1	13
7	Rio Ave	7	3	4	0	+3	+1.0	13
8	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+4	+9.5	12
9	Casa Pia	8	3	3	2	+2	+1.8	12
10	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.1	11
11	Estrela	7	3	2	2	+0	-1.8	11
12	Estoril	8	3	2	3	-3	-7.2	11
13	Famalicao	8	2	4	2	-1	-0.4	10
14	Nacional	7	3	1	3	-5	-2.2	10
15	AVS	8	2	3	3	-5	-5.7	9
16	Arouca	7	2	1	4	-5	-6.0	7
17	Farense	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.4	6
18	Boavista	7	0	3	4	-8	-1.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+20	+15.4	18
2	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.6	14
3	Porto	7	4	1	2	+8	+0.7	13
4	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+5	+3.1	13
5	Famalicao	7	2	3	2	+2	-4.6	9
6	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	+0	+0.4	9
7	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	-1.7	9
8	Santa Clara	7	3	0	4	-1	+0.1	9
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.3	8
10	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-5	+2.7	6
11	Farense	8	1	3	4	-5	-9.5	6
12	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-12	-7.9	5
13	AVS	7	0	4	3	-6	-1.8	4
14	Arouca	8	1	1	6	-12	-5.7	4
15	Estoril	6	0	3	3	-6	-7.1	3
16	Rio Ave	7	1	0	6	-13	-12.1	3
17	Nacional	7	0	2	5	-6	+0.8	2
18	Estrela	7	0	1	6	-12	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.