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Primeira Liga
Referee: Cláudio Pereira
Sp Lisbon
S S S S T
0–1
Full-time
Santa Clara
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Santa Clara
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
100%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
5,3
1,5
Scored
3,8
0,8
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 82%
100%
64%
Points per game
3,0
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
82%
36%
Both score Ø 36%
36%
36%
Average goals
4,0
2,4
Scored
3,5
1,3
Conceded
0,5
1,1
Goal diff per game
+3,1
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,51 xG 0,37
74% Possession 26%
21 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 3
8 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 8
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Santa Clara 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 11 11 0 0 +34 +24.0 33
2 Porto 11 9 0 2 +20 +14.9 27
3 Benfica 10 8 1 1 +21 +12.8 25
4 Santa Clara 11 7 0 4 +2 +9.1 21
5 Sp Braga 11 6 2 3 +8 +5.5 20
6 Guimaraes 11 5 3 3 +1 -0.2 18
7 Famalicao 11 4 5 2 +3 -3.6 17
8 Moreirense 12 5 2 5 +0 +3.2 17
9 Rio Ave 12 4 3 5 -9 -8.3 15
10 Casa Pia 11 3 4 4 -4 -2.4 13
11 Gil Vicente 11 2 4 5 -5 -4.5 10
12 Estoril 11 2 4 5 -8 -11.8 10
13 Boavista 12 2 4 6 -8 -1.4 10
14 AVS 11 2 4 5 -10 -4.7 10
15 Nacional 11 2 3 6 -9 -1.8 9
16 Estrela 12 2 3 7 -11 -8.2 9
17 Farense 12 2 2 8 -12 -12.1 8
18 Arouca 11 2 2 7 -13 -10.4 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Santa Clara
22′
🟨 Adriano Firmino
33′
Vinícius Lopes 0–1
Matheus Pereira
44′
🟨 Allison Safira
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Vinícius Lopes
C. Harder 🔁
↦ M. Edwards
46′
M. Araújo 🔁
↦ Geovany Quenda
46′
49′
🟨 Diogo Calila
Gonçalo Inácio 🔁
↦ Matheus Reis
61′
J. St. Juste 🔁
↦ Z. Debast
61′
61′
🔁 Lucas Soares
↦ Gustavo Klismahn
64′
🟨 Matheus Araújo
68′
🔁 Bruno Almeida
↦ Alisson Safira
73′
🔁 Daniel Borges
↦ Serginho
73′
🔁 Pedro Ferreira
↦ Diogo Calila
Viktor Gyökeres 🟨
76′
H. Morita 🔁
↦ M. Hjulmand
78′
83′
🟨 Gabriel Batista
Maximiliano Araújo ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
84′
92′
🟨 Lucas Soares
94′
🟨 Matheus Pereira
Daniel Bragança 🟨
98′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
13 V. Kovačević G
6 Z. Debast D
26 O. Diomande D
2 Matheus Reis D
57 Geovany Quenda M
42 M. Hjulmand M
23 Daniel Bragança M
21 Geny Catamo M
17 Trincão F
10 M. Edwards F
9 V. Gyökeres F
Bench (9)
19 C. Harder
20 M. Araújo
25 Gonçalo Inácio
3 J. St. Juste
5 H. Morita
41 Diego Callai
22 Iván Fresneda
52 João Simões
47 Ricardo Esgaio

Coach: João Pereira

Santa Clara

5-4-1
1 Gabriel Batista G
2 Diogo Calila D
21 Frederico Venâncio D
13 Luís Rocha D
32 MT D
3 Matheus Pereira D
70 Vinícius Lopes M
35 Serginho M
6 Adriano Firmino M
77 Gustavo Klismahn M
9 Alisson Safira F
Bench (9)
42 Lucas Soares
19 Bruno Almeida
41 Daniel Borges
8 Pedro Ferreira
17 João Costa
27 Guilherme Ramos
28 Habraão
73 Gustavo Veiga
12 Neneca

Coach: Vasco Matos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,16
U
7,43
B ✓
16,32
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,62
U2,5 ✓
2,25
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Cláudio Pereira · 78 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.