Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Sp Lisbon
Santa Clara
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sp Lisbon
|
11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | +34 | +24.0 | 33 |
| 2 |
Porto
|
11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +20 | +14.9 | 27 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +21 | +12.8 | 25 |
| 4 |
Santa Clara
|
11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | +2 | +9.1 | 21 |
| 5 |
Sp Braga
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +8 | +5.5 | 20 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +1 | -0.2 | 18 |
| 7 |
Famalicao
|
11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | -3.6 | 17 |
| 8 |
Moreirense
|
12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | +0 | +3.2 | 17 |
| 9 |
Rio Ave
|
12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -9 | -8.3 | 15 |
| 10 |
Casa Pia
|
11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | -2.4 | 13 |
| 11 |
Gil Vicente
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | -4.5 | 10 |
| 12 |
Estoril
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -8 | -11.8 | 10 |
| 13 |
Boavista
|
12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 14 |
AVS
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -10 | -4.7 | 10 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | -1.8 | 9 |
| 16 |
Estrela
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -11 | -8.2 | 9 |
| 17 |
Farense
|
12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -12 | -12.1 | 8 |
| 18 |
Arouca
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | -10.4 | 8 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
V. Kovačević
G
Z. Debast
D
O. Diomande
D
Geovany Quenda
M
M. Hjulmand
M
Daniel Bragança
M
Geny Catamo
M
M. Edwards
F
V. Gyökeres
F
Coach: João Pereira
Diogo Calila
D
Vinícius Lopes
M
Coach: Vasco Matos
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Sp Lisbon
Arsenal
Sp Lisbon
Amarante
Sp Braga
Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon
Man City
Sp Lisbon
Estrela
Cláudio Pereira · 78 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.