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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Leicester

S U U T T

4–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

This season — Premier League · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 40%

54%

26%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

61%

70%

Both score Ø 61%

54%

67%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 0

3 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 3. · Aston Villa 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	27	1	1	+45	82
2	Man City	28	18	3	7	+37	57
3	Leicester	28	15	5	8	+26	50
4	Chelsea	29	14	6	9	+12	48
5	Man United	29	12	9	8	+14	45
6	Wolves	29	10	13	6	+7	43
7	Sheffield United	28	11	10	7	+5	43
8	Tottenham	29	11	8	10	+7	41
9	Arsenal	28	9	13	6	+4	40
10	Burnley	29	11	6	12	-6	39
11	Crystal Palace	29	10	9	10	-6	39
12	Everton	29	10	7	12	-9	37
13	Newcastle	29	9	8	12	-16	35
14	Southampton	29	10	4	15	-17	34
15	Brighton	29	6	11	12	-8	29
16	West Ham	29	7	6	16	-15	27
17	Watford	29	6	9	14	-17	27
18	Bournemouth	29	7	6	16	-18	27
19	Aston Villa	27	7	4	16	-18	25
20	Norwich	29	5	6	18	-27	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	15	0	0	+28	45
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Man United	15	8	5	2	+17	29
4	Leicester	14	8	3	3	+11	27
5	Tottenham	14	8	2	4	+12	26
6	Arsenal	15	7	5	3	+6	26
7	Everton	14	7	4	3	+4	25
8	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+7	24
9	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	+4	24
10	Burnley	15	7	2	6	+1	23
11	Wolves	15	5	7	3	+4	22
12	Crystal Palace	15	6	4	5	-1	22
13	Newcastle	14	5	6	3	+0	21
14	Brighton	14	4	6	4	+2	18
15	Watford	14	4	5	5	-1	17
16	Bournemouth	14	4	5	5	-4	17
17	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	-6	17
18	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-3	15
19	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-7	15
20	Southampton	15	4	2	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	12	1	1	+17	37
2	Man City	15	9	1	5	+16	28
3	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+5	24
4	Leicester	14	7	2	5	+15	23
5	Wolves	14	5	6	3	+3	21
6	Southampton	14	6	2	6	-2	20
7	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
8	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-5	17
9	Man United	14	4	4	6	-3	16
10	Burnley	14	4	4	6	-7	16
11	Tottenham	15	3	6	6	-5	15
12	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
13	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-16	14
14	West Ham	15	3	3	9	-12	12
15	Everton	15	3	3	9	-13	12
16	Brighton	15	2	5	8	-10	11
17	Bournemouth	15	3	1	11	-14	10
18	Watford	15	2	4	9	-16	10
19	Aston Villa	14	2	2	10	-12	8
20	Norwich	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.