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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Aston Villa

T T S U T

1–4

Full-time

Leicester

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,2

3,2

Conceded

1,8

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+3,0

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 50%

27%

73%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

73%

53%

Both score Ø 57%

67%

47%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,6

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

40% Possession 60%

15 Shots 23

2 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 15

6 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 17. · Leicester 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	15	1	0	+26	46
2	Leicester	15	11	2	2	+26	35
3	Man City	16	10	2	4	+25	32
4	Chelsea	16	9	2	5	+7	29
5	Man United	16	6	6	4	+6	24
6	Tottenham	16	6	5	5	+7	23
7	Wolves	15	5	8	2	+4	23
8	Crystal Palace	16	6	4	6	-4	22
9	Sheffield United	15	4	7	4	+2	19
10	Arsenal	15	4	7	4	-2	19
11	Newcastle	15	5	4	6	-7	19
12	Brighton	15	5	3	7	-4	18
13	Burnley	16	5	3	8	-8	18
14	Everton	16	5	2	9	-9	17
15	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-6	16
16	West Ham	15	4	4	7	-8	16
17	Aston Villa	15	4	3	8	-2	15
18	Southampton	15	4	3	8	-16	15
19	Norwich	15	3	2	10	-16	11
20	Watford	16	1	6	9	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	8	0	0	+15	24
2	Leicester	8	7	1	0	+14	22
3	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Man City	8	5	1	2	+14	16
5	Man United	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Arsenal	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Wolves	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
10	Burnley	8	4	0	4	-1	12
11	Aston Villa	7	3	2	2	+3	11
12	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+2	11
13	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-1	11
14	Newcastle	7	2	4	1	+1	10
15	Sheffield United	8	3	1	4	+0	10
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Norwich	7	2	1	4	-6	7
19	Southampton	8	2	1	5	-14	7
20	Watford	8	0	4	4	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Man City	8	5	1	2	+11	16
3	Chelsea	8	5	0	3	+3	15
4	Leicester	7	4	1	2	+12	13
5	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-3	11
6	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+2	10
7	Sheffield United	7	1	6	0	+2	9
8	Man United	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	West Ham	8	2	3	3	-4	9
10	Newcastle	8	3	0	5	-8	9
11	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Bournemouth	8	2	1	5	-3	7
13	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-6	7
14	Arsenal	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Tottenham	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Burnley	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Watford	8	1	2	5	-12	5
18	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-5	4
19	Everton	8	1	1	6	-9	4
20	Norwich	8	1	1	6	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.