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Premier League

Referee: Roger East

Aston Villa

U U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Leicester

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 34%

10%

57%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

43%

62%

Both score Ø 60%

52%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Leicester 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	22	13	4	5	+22	43
2	Arsenal	21	13	4	4	+16	43
3	Leicester	21	12	7	2	+13	43
4	Tottenham	22	10	9	3	+20	39
5	West Ham	22	9	8	5	+8	35
6	Man United	21	9	7	5	+7	34
7	Stoke	21	9	5	7	+2	32
8	Crystal Palace	22	9	4	9	-1	31
9	Liverpool	21	8	7	6	-2	31
10	Southampton	22	8	6	8	+7	30
11	Everton	22	6	11	5	+7	29
12	Watford	21	8	5	8	+1	29
13	West Brom	22	7	6	9	-8	27
14	Chelsea	22	6	7	9	-3	25
15	Bournemouth	22	6	6	10	-11	24
16	Norwich	22	6	5	11	-14	23
17	Newcastle	22	5	6	11	-15	21
18	Swansea	21	4	7	10	-11	19
19	Sunderland	22	5	3	14	-18	18
20	Aston Villa	21	2	5	14	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	12	6	4	2	+13	22
4	Southampton	12	6	2	4	+9	20
5	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
6	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
7	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
8	Stoke	10	5	1	4	+3	16
9	Chelsea	12	4	4	4	+1	16
10	Liverpool	10	4	4	2	+0	16
11	Norwich	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Newcastle	12	3	5	4	+1	14
13	Watford	11	4	2	5	+1	14
14	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	+0	14
15	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Everton	11	3	4	4	+3	13
17	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-2	13
18	Swansea	11	3	4	4	-5	13
19	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	+1	11
20	Aston Villa	10	1	3	6	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	11	7	3	1	+10	24
2	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
3	West Ham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
4	Tottenham	10	4	5	1	+7	17
5	Crystal Palace	11	5	2	4	-1	17
6	Everton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
7	Stoke	11	4	4	3	-1	16
8	Man City	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Watford	10	4	3	3	+0	15
10	Man United	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
12	West Brom	11	3	4	4	-5	13
13	Bournemouth	11	3	2	6	-9	11
14	Southampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Chelsea	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-16	8
17	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-16	7
18	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-19	7
19	Swansea	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Aston Villa	11	1	2	8	-14	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.