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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Bournemouth

T T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 27%

25%

29%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

54%

71%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

39% Possession 61%

16 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 18. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	24	23	1	0	+41	70
2	Man City	24	16	3	5	+38	51
3	Leicester	25	15	4	6	+28	49
4	Chelsea	25	12	5	8	+9	41
5	Man United	24	9	7	8	+7	34
6	Tottenham	24	9	7	8	+6	34
7	Wolves	24	8	10	6	+3	34
8	Sheffield United	24	8	9	7	+2	33
9	Southampton	24	9	4	11	-11	31
10	Arsenal	24	6	12	6	-2	30
11	Crystal Palace	24	7	9	8	-6	30
12	Everton	24	8	6	10	-7	30
13	Burnley	24	9	3	12	-10	30
14	Newcastle	24	8	6	10	-12	30
15	Brighton	24	6	7	11	-7	25
16	Aston Villa	24	7	4	13	-14	25
17	West Ham	24	6	5	13	-13	23
18	Bournemouth	24	6	5	13	-14	23
19	Watford	24	5	8	11	-15	23
20	Norwich	24	4	5	15	-23	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	12	0	0	+22	36
2	Leicester	13	8	3	2	+12	27
3	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
4	Tottenham	12	7	2	3	+11	23
5	Man United	12	6	4	2	+12	22
6	Everton	12	6	3	3	+2	21
7	Newcastle	12	5	4	3	+0	19
8	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Burnley	12	6	0	6	-2	18
10	Brighton	12	4	5	3	+3	17
11	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+2	17
12	Wolves	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Arsenal	12	4	5	3	+0	17
14	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	-5	17
15	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-2	16
16	Watford	12	3	5	4	-3	14
17	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-5	13
18	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
19	West Ham	12	3	2	7	-5	11
20	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	11	1	0	+19	34
2	Man City	12	8	1	3	+19	25
3	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	+5	23
4	Leicester	12	7	1	4	+16	22
5	Southampton	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Wolves	12	4	5	3	+2	17
7	Sheffield United	12	3	7	2	+0	16
8	Crystal Palace	12	3	5	4	-4	14
9	Arsenal	12	2	7	3	-2	13
10	Man United	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	Burnley	12	3	3	6	-8	12
12	West Ham	12	3	3	6	-8	12
13	Tottenham	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-12	11
15	Bournemouth	12	3	1	8	-9	10
16	Everton	12	2	3	7	-9	9
17	Watford	12	2	3	7	-12	9
18	Aston Villa	12	2	2	8	-9	8
19	Brighton	12	2	2	8	-10	8
20	Norwich	12	1	2	9	-16	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.