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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Man United

S T T U S

3–0

Full-time

Watford

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 29%

38%

19%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

38%

46%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

42%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

21 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 7. · Watford 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	25	1	0	+46	76
2	Man City	27	18	3	6	+39	57
3	Leicester	27	15	5	7	+27	50
4	Chelsea	27	13	5	9	+8	44
5	Tottenham	27	11	7	9	+8	40
6	Sheffield United	27	10	10	7	+4	40
7	Man United	26	10	8	8	+9	38
8	Burnley	27	11	4	12	-6	37
9	Wolves	26	8	12	6	+3	36
10	Everton	26	10	6	10	-4	36
11	Arsenal	26	7	13	6	+2	34
12	Southampton	27	10	4	13	-14	34
13	Crystal Palace	27	8	9	10	-8	33
14	Newcastle	27	8	7	12	-17	31
15	Brighton	27	6	10	11	-7	28
16	Bournemouth	27	7	5	15	-17	26
17	Aston Villa	27	7	4	16	-18	25
18	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-15	24
19	Watford	26	5	9	12	-16	24
20	Norwich	26	4	6	16	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	13	0	0	+26	39
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Leicester	14	8	3	3	+11	27
4	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+13	26
5	Everton	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Man United	13	6	5	2	+12	23
7	Burnley	14	7	1	6	+1	22
8	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+3	21
9	Sheffield United	14	6	3	5	+3	21
10	Arsenal	13	5	5	3	+4	20
11	Newcastle	13	5	5	3	+0	20
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Brighton	13	4	6	3	+3	18
14	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+1	18
15	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	-6	17
16	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-4	16
17	Watford	13	3	5	5	-4	14
18	Southampton	14	4	2	8	-14	14
19	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-5	12
20	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+20	37
2	Man City	14	9	1	4	+18	28
3	Leicester	13	7	2	4	+16	23
4	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Southampton	13	6	2	5	+0	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
7	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Man United	13	4	3	6	-3	15
9	Burnley	13	4	3	6	-7	15
10	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
11	Tottenham	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Crystal Palace	13	3	5	5	-6	14
13	Everton	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-10	12
15	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-17	11
16	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
17	Watford	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Bournemouth	14	3	1	10	-13	10
19	Aston Villa	14	2	2	10	-12	8
20	Norwich	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.