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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Brighton

U T U T U

1–1

Full-time

Watford

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 22%

24%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 48%

56%

40%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

10 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 15. · Watford 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	25	24	1	0	+45	73
2	Man City	25	16	3	6	+36	51
3	Leicester	25	15	4	6	+28	49
4	Chelsea	25	12	5	8	+9	41
5	Tottenham	25	10	7	8	+8	37
6	Sheffield United	25	9	9	7	+3	36
7	Everton	26	10	6	10	-4	36
8	Man United	25	9	8	8	+7	35
9	Wolves	25	8	11	6	+3	35
10	Arsenal	25	6	13	6	-2	31
11	Burnley	25	9	4	12	-10	31
12	Newcastle	25	8	7	10	-12	31
13	Southampton	25	9	4	12	-15	31
14	Crystal Palace	26	7	9	10	-9	30
15	Brighton	25	6	8	11	-7	26
16	Bournemouth	25	7	5	13	-13	26
17	Aston Villa	25	7	4	14	-15	25
18	West Ham	25	6	6	13	-13	24
19	Watford	25	5	8	12	-16	23
20	Norwich	25	4	6	15	-23	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	13	0	0	+26	39
2	Leicester	13	8	3	2	+12	27
3	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
4	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+13	26
5	Everton	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Man United	13	6	5	2	+12	23
7	Newcastle	13	5	5	3	+0	20
8	Burnley	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+4	18
10	Brighton	12	4	5	3	+3	17
11	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+2	17
12	Wolves	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Arsenal	12	4	5	3	+0	17
14	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	-5	17
15	Crystal Palace	13	4	4	5	-3	16
16	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-4	16
17	Watford	13	3	5	5	-4	14
18	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-5	12
19	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
20	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	11	1	0	+19	34
2	Man City	13	8	1	4	+17	25
3	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	+5	23
4	Leicester	12	7	1	4	+16	22
5	Southampton	13	6	2	5	+0	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
7	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
9	Crystal Palace	13	3	5	5	-6	14
10	Man United	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	Everton	13	3	3	7	-8	12
12	Burnley	12	3	3	6	-8	12
13	West Ham	12	3	3	6	-8	12
14	Tottenham	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-12	11
16	Bournemouth	12	3	1	8	-9	10
17	Brighton	13	2	3	8	-10	9
18	Watford	12	2	3	7	-12	9
19	Aston Villa	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Norwich	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.