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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Watford

T U T S T

1–1

Full-time

Leicester

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 38%

21%

55%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

48%

62%

Both score Ø 45%

38%

52%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

31% Possession 69%

8 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 17. · Leicester 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	27	1	1	+45	82
2	Man City	29	19	3	7	+40	60
3	Leicester	29	16	5	8	+30	53
4	Chelsea	29	14	6	9	+12	48
5	Man United	30	12	10	8	+14	46
6	Sheffield United	29	11	11	7	+5	44
7	Wolves	29	10	13	6	+7	43
8	Tottenham	30	11	9	10	+7	42
9	Arsenal	29	9	13	7	+1	40
10	Burnley	29	11	6	12	-6	39
11	Crystal Palace	29	10	9	10	-6	39
12	Everton	29	10	7	12	-9	37
13	Southampton	30	11	4	15	-14	37
14	Newcastle	29	9	8	12	-16	35
15	Brighton	29	6	11	12	-8	29
16	West Ham	29	7	6	16	-15	27
17	Watford	29	6	9	14	-17	27
18	Bournemouth	29	7	6	16	-18	27
19	Aston Villa	29	7	5	17	-22	26
20	Norwich	30	5	6	19	-30	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	15	0	0	+28	45
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+24	32
3	Leicester	15	9	3	3	+15	30
4	Man United	15	8	5	2	+17	29
5	Tottenham	15	8	3	4	+12	27
6	Arsenal	15	7	5	3	+6	26
7	Everton	14	7	4	3	+4	25
8	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+7	24
9	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	+4	24
10	Burnley	15	7	2	6	+1	23
11	Wolves	15	5	7	3	+4	22
12	Crystal Palace	15	6	4	5	-1	22
13	Newcastle	14	5	6	3	+0	21
14	Brighton	14	4	6	4	+2	18
15	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	-6	18
16	Watford	14	4	5	5	-1	17
17	Bournemouth	14	4	5	5	-4	17
18	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-3	15
19	Norwich	15	4	3	8	-10	15
20	Southampton	15	4	2	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	12	1	1	+17	37
2	Man City	15	9	1	5	+16	28
3	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+5	24
4	Leicester	14	7	2	5	+15	23
5	Southampton	15	7	2	6	+1	23
6	Wolves	14	5	6	3	+3	21
7	Sheffield United	14	4	8	2	+1	20
8	Man United	15	4	5	6	-3	17
9	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-5	17
10	Burnley	14	4	4	6	-7	16
11	Tottenham	15	3	6	6	-5	15
12	Arsenal	14	2	8	4	-5	14
13	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-16	14
14	West Ham	15	3	3	9	-12	12
15	Everton	15	3	3	9	-13	12
16	Brighton	15	2	5	8	-10	11
17	Bournemouth	15	3	1	11	-14	10
18	Watford	15	2	4	9	-16	10
19	Aston Villa	15	2	2	11	-16	8
20	Norwich	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.