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Champions League
Referee: D Massa
Sevilla
S U T U T
2–3
Full-time
PSV Eindhoven
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla PSV Eindhoven
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,7
3,8
Scored
1,3
3,3
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/8 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
50%
75%
Both score Ø 75%
75%
75%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
1,0
2,3
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,08 xG 2,17
40% Possession 60%
11 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 5
2 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
2 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. Oct -23 PSV Eindhoven – Sevilla 2–2 23. Feb -23 PSV Eindhoven – Sevilla 2–0 16. Feb -23 Sevilla – PSV Eindhoven 3–0

Match report

Sevilla PSV Eindhoven
Fernando 🟥
-5′
1–0 Sergio Ramos ⚽
I. Rakitić
24′
33′
🟨 Hirving Lozano
Djibril Sow ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
40′
44′
🔁 Y. Vertessen
↦ H. Lozano
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Y. En-Nesyri ⚽
M. Acuña
47′
Juanlu Sánchez 🔁
↦ Jesús Navas
58′
58′
🔁 I. Saibari
↦ André Ramalho
58′
🔁 M. Tillman
↦ G. Til
Lucas Ocampos 🟨
63′
Lucas Ocampos 🟨
66′
Lucas Ocampos 🟥
66′
68′
⚽ I. Saibari 2–1
S. Dest
T. Nianzou 🔁
↦ D. Lukébakio
73′
Joan Jordán 🔁
↦ D. Sow
74′
Rafa Mir 🔁
↦ Y. En-Nesyri
74′
81′
⚽ N. Gudelj 3–1
own goal
82′
🔁 R. Pepi
↦ J. Schouten
82′
🔁 P. van Aanholt
↦ O. Boscagli
Óliver Torres 🔁
↦ Fernando
84′
92′
⚽ R. Pepi 3–2
Y. Vertessen
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Sevilla

4-3-3
1 M. Dmitrović G
16 Jesús Navas D
6 N. Gudelj D
4 Sergio Ramos D
19 M. Acuña D
18 D. Sow M
20 Fernando M
10 I. Rakitić M
5 L. Ocampos F
15 Y. En-Nesyri F
11 D. Lukébakio F
Bench (12)
26 Juanlu Sánchez
14 T. Nianzou
8 Joan Jordán
9 Rafa Mir
21 Óliver Torres
33 Matías Árbol
31 Alberto Flores
12 M. Díaz
2 F. Gattoni
28 Manu Bueno
27 Kike Salas
3 Adrià Pedrosa

Coach: D. Alonso

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1
1 W. Benítez G
3 J. Teze D
5 André Ramalho D
18 O. Boscagli D
8 S. Dest D
22 J. Schouten M
23 J. Veerman M
11 J. Bakayoko M
20 G. Til M
27 H. Lozano M
9 L. de Jong F
Bench (11)
32 Y. Vertessen
34 I. Saibari
10 M. Tillman
14 R. Pepi
30 P. van Aanholt
4 A. Obispo
17 Mauro Júnior
24 B. Waterman
2 S. Sambo
16 J. Drommel
26 I. Babadi

Coach: P. Bosz

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.