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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Real Madrid
S U S S S
4–2
Full-time
Napoli
U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
2,5
1,3
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
75%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
2,3
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,82 xG 1,44
53% Possession 47%
20 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. Oct -23 Napoli – Real Madrid 2–3

Match report

Real Madrid Napoli
9′
⚽ G. Simeone 0–1
G. Di Lorenzo
1–1 Rodrygo ⚽
Brahim Díaz
11′
2–1 J. Bellingham ⚽
D. Alaba
22′
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 V. Osimhen
↦ G. Simeone
47′
⚽ F. Anguissa 2–2
49′
🟨 Piotr Zieliński
Joselu 🔁
↦ Dani Ceballos
57′
N. Paz 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
65′
65′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ P. Zieliński
78′
🔁 J. Cajuste
↦ M. Politano
3–2 N. Paz ⚽
A. Rüdiger
84′
Nacho 🔁
↦ F. Mendy
87′
Lucas Vázquez 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
87′
87′
🔁 A. Zanoli
↦ Juan Jesus
87′
🔁 G. Raspadori
↦ S. Lobotka
90′
🟨 Jens Cajuste
4–2 Joselu ⚽
J. Bellingham
94′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-2-2
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
22 A. Rüdiger D
4 D. Alaba D
23 F. Mendy D
15 F. Valverde M
8 T. Kroos M
19 Dani Ceballos M
5 J. Bellingham M
21 Brahim Díaz F
11 Rodrygo F
Bench (10)
14 Joselu
32 N. Paz
6 Nacho
17 Lucas Vázquez
31 Lucas Cañizares
20 Fran García
28 Mario Martín
38 T. Zidane
30 Fran González
33 Gonzalo García

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 Amir Rrahmani D
3 Natan D
5 Juan Jesus D
99 F. Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
20 P. Zieliński M
21 M. Politano F
18 G. Simeone F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (10)
9 V. Osimhen
7 E. Elmas
24 J. Cajuste
59 A. Zanoli
81 G. Raspadori
95 P. Gollini
23 A. Zerbin
70 G. Gaetano
14 N. Contini-Baranovskyi
55 L. Østigård

Coach: W. Mazzarri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.