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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Paris SG
S U S S S
4–2
Full-time
Man City
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,0
4,5
Scored
2,7
3,8
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+3,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,0
3,7
Scored
1,0
2,2
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,75 xG 1,78
63% Possession 37%
26 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 6
7 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
11 Corners 6
3 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Paris SG Man City
9′
🟨 Rúben Dias
Nuno Mendes 🟨
23′
Half-time 0–0
Achraf Hakimi ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
46′
O. Dembélé 🔁
↦ Lee Kang-In
46′
46′
🔁 R. Lewis
↦ Rúben Dias
46′
🔁 J. Grealish
↦ Savinho
50′
⚽ J. Grealish 0–1
53′
⚽ E. Haaland 0–2
1–2 O. Dembélé ⚽
B. Barcola
56′
2–2 B. Barcola ⚽
60′
W. Zaïre-Emery 🔁
↦ Fabián Ruiz
61′
Gonçalo Ramos 🔁
↦ D. Doué
61′
70′
🔁 İ. Gündoğan
↦ M. Kovačić
70′
🔁 J. McAtee
↦ K. De Bruyne
78′
🔁 J. Stones
↦ Matheus Nunes
3–2 João Neves ⚽
Vitinha
78′
L. Hernández 🔁
↦ B. Barcola
81′
4–2 Gonçalo Ramos ⚽
93′
Gonçalo Ramos ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
96′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
1 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 Nuno Mendes D
87 João Neves M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
14 D. Doué F
19 Lee Kang-In F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (12)
10 O. Dembélé
33 W. Zaïre-Emery
9 Gonçalo Ramos
21 L. Hernández
48 A. Tape
35 Beraldo
3 P. Kimpembe
24 S. Mayulu
42 Y. Zague
39 M. Safonov
80 Arnau Tenas
11 Marco Asensio

Coach: Luis Enrique

Man City

4-2-3-1
31 Ederson G
27 Matheus Nunes D
25 M. Akanji D
3 Rúben Dias D
24 J. Gvardiol D
20 Bernardo Silva M
8 M. Kovačić M
47 P. Foden M
17 K. De Bruyne M
26 Savinho M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (10)
82 R. Lewis
10 J. Grealish
19 İ. Gündoğan
87 J. McAtee
5 J. Stones
68 M. Alleyne
33 S. Carson
75 N. O'Reilly
18 S. Ortega
56 J. Wright

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.