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Champions League
Referee: T Stieler
Milan
S U U S T
1–0
Full-time
Girona
T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Girona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
1,7
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
3,5
2,3
Scored
2,0
0,7
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,31 xG 0,94
42% Possession 58%
17 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 3
1 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Milan Girona
D. Calabria 🔁
↦ Emerson Royal
4′
1–0 Rafael Leão ⚽
I. Bennacer
37′
Davide Calabria 🟨
41′
Half-time 1–0
59′
🟨 Bryan Gil
T. Abraham 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
64′
72′
🔁 Y. Asprilla
↦ D. van de Beek
72′
🔁 C. Stuani
↦ Abel Ruiz
72′
🔁 A. Danjuma
↦ Bryan Gil
72′
🔁 Iván Martín
↦ V. Tsyhankov
F. Terracciano 🔁
↦ T. Reijnders
75′
C. Pulišić 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
75′
77′
🔁 Portu
↦ Y. Herrera
Theo Hernández 🟨
80′
82′
🟨 Iván Martín
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
22 Emerson Royal D
46 M. Gabbia D
31 S. Pavlović D
19 T. Hernández D
4 I. Bennacer M
29 Y. Fofana M
80 Y. Musah M
14 T. Reijnders M
10 Rafael Leão M
7 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (10)
2 D. Calabria
90 T. Abraham
42 F. Terracciano
11 C. Pulišić
33 D. Bartesaghi
96 L. Torriani
17 N. Okafor
18 K. Zeroli
73 F. Camarda
57 M. Sportiello

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Girona

4-2-3-1
13 P. Gazzaniga G
16 Alejandro Francés D
5 David López D
18 L. Krejčí D
17 D. Blind D
14 Oriol Romeu M
21 Y. Herrera M
8 V. Tsyhankov M
6 D. van de Beek M
20 Bryan Gil M
9 Abel Ruiz F
Bench (11)
10 Y. Asprilla
7 C. Stuani
11 A. Danjuma
23 Iván Martín
24 Portu
15 Juanpe
28 Silvi
4 Arnau Martínez
36 Ricard Artero
25 Pau López
22 J. Solís

Coach: Míchel Sánchez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.