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Champions League
Referee: S Schärer
Shakhtar Donetsk
T T S T T
2–0
Full-time
Brest
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Shakhtar Donetsk Brest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,93 xG 0,43
47% Possession 53%
9 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 4
2 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Shakhtar Donetsk Brest
1–0 Kevin ⚽
18′
22′
🟨 Abdoulaye Ndiaye
2–0 H. Sudakov ⚽
37′
Half-time 2–0
L. Traoré 🔁
↦ Eguinaldo
55′
60′
🔁 R. Del Castillo
↦ M. Camara
60′
🔁 R. Faivre
↦ K. Doumbia
60′
🔁 A. Sima
↦ L. Ajorque
Y. Konoplia 🔁
↦ Vinícius Tobias
71′
T. Stepanenko 🔁
↦ Marlon Gomes
71′
71′
🔁 I. Salah
↦ Mama Baldé
Taras Stepanenko 🟨
77′
A. Bondarenko 🔁
↦ H. Sudakov
83′
O. Zubkov 🔁
↦ Pedrinho
83′
85′
🔁 S. Coulibaly
↦ E. Fernandes
Oleksandr Zubkov ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
96′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
31 D. Riznyk G
17 Vinícius Tobias D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matviienko D
16 I. Azarovi D
8 D. Kryskiv M
38 Pedrinho M
30 Marlon Gomes M
10 H. Sudakov M
37 Kevin M
7 Eguinaldo F
Bench (12)
2 L. Traoré
26 Y. Konoplia
6 T. Stepanenko
21 A. Bondarenko
11 O. Zubkov
39 Newerton
29 Y. Nazaryna
9 M. Shved
72 K. Fesiun
48 D. Tvardovskyi
20 A. Hlushchenko
74 M. Faryna

Coach: M. Pusic

Brest

4-2-3-1
40 M. Bizot G
7 K. Lala D
5 B. Chardonnet D
3 A. Ndiaye D
26 Mathias Pereira Lage D
6 E. Fernandes M
8 H. Magnetti M
14 Mama Baldé M
45 M. Camara M
9 K. Doumbia M
19 L. Ajorque F
Bench (8)
10 R. Del Castillo
21 R. Faivre
17 A. Sima
34 I. Salah
44 S. Coulibaly
30 G. Coudert
20 P. Lees-Melou
50 N. Jauny

Coach: E. Roy

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Schärer · 132 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.