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Champions League
Referee: A Taylor
Marseille
T S T S S
4–0
Full-time
Ajax
U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
2,2
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,0
0,0
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,13 xG 0,80
48% Possession 52%
9 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
0 Corners 7
0 Offside 2
18 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

30. Nov -23 Marseille – Ajax 4–3 21. Sep -23 Ajax – Marseille 3–3

Match report

Marseille Ajax
1–0 I. Paixao ⚽
P. Aubameyang
6′
2–0 I. Paixao ⚽
A. Vermeeren
12′
23′
🔁 J. Mokio
↦ Y. Regeer
3–0 M. Greenwood ⚽
P. Aubameyang
26′
34′
🟨 Lucas Rosa
C. Egan-Riley 🔁
↦ F. Medina
36′
Half-time 3–0
T. Weah 🔁
↦ B. Nadir
46′
46′
🔁 O. Edvardsen
↦ S. Berghuis
4–0 P. Aubameyang ⚽
I. Paixao
52′
55′
🔁 A. Gaaei
↦ O. Wijndal
55′
🔁 J. Sutalo
↦ Y. Baas
A. Gomes 🔁
↦ I. Paixao
62′
P. Hojbjerg 🔁
↦ M. O'Riley
62′
66′
🟨 Ko Itakura
76′
🟨 Anton Gaaei
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 🟨
79′
M. Murillo 🔁
↦ A. Vermeeren
82′
84′
🔁 R. Moro
↦ M. Godts
Nayef Aguerd 🟨
88′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1
1 G. Rulli G
28 B. Pavard D
21 N. Aguerd D
32 F. Medina D
33 Emerson D
17 M. O'Riley M
18 A. Vermeeren M
10 M. Greenwood M
26 B. Nadir M
14 I. Paixao M
97 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (10)
12 J. De Lange
40 J. Van Neck
4 C. Egan-Riley
5 L. Balerdi
8 A. Gomes
9 A. Gouiri
22 T. Weah
23 P. Hojbjerg
34 R. Vaz
62 M. Murillo

Coach: Habib Beye

Ajax

4-3-3
1 V. Jaros G
2 L. Rosa D
4 K. Itakura D
15 Y. Baas D
5 O. Wijndal D
18 D. Klaassen M
6 Y. Regeer M
8 K. Taylor M
23 S. Berghuis F
10 O. Gloukh F
11 M. Godts F
Bench (11)
22 R. Pasveer
52 P. Reverson
3 A. Gaaei
7 R. Moro
17 O. Edvardsen
19 D. Konadu
24 J. Mokio
28 K. Fitz-Jim
37 J. Sutalo
41 G. Alders
43 R. Bounida

Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.