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Champions League
Referee: M Guida
Kairat Almaty
S T U U T
0–5
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kairat Almaty Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
1,7
3,8
Scored
0,8
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/1 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
22%
100%
Both score Ø 61%
22%
100%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
0,9
2,0
Conceded
0,9
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,43 xG 3,54
33% Possession 67%
11 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 12
1 Blocked shots 2
7 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 6
1 Offside 0
6 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Kairat Almaty Real Madrid
25′
⚽ K. Mbappe 0–1
Half-time 0–1
Valeriy Gromyko 🟨
48′
52′
⚽ K. Mbappe 0–2
T. Courtois
Ofri Arad 🟨
54′
O. Baybek 🔁
↦ O. Arad
64′
Edmilson 🔁
↦ Jorginho
64′
J. Stanojev 🔁
↦ E. Tapalov
64′
Valeriy Gromyko ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
69′
70′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ F. Mastantuono
70′
🔁 B. Diaz
↦ Vinicius Junior
73′
⚽ K. Mbappe 0–3
A. Guler
G. Zaria 🔁
↦ V. Gromyko
80′
Ricardinho 🔁
↦ D. Satpaev
80′
81′
🔁 J. Bellingham
↦ A. Guler
81′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ A. Tchouameni
81′
🔁 G. Garcia
↦ K. Mbappe
83′
⚽ E. Camavinga 0–4
Rodrygo
90′
⚽ B. Diaz 0–5
G. Garcia
Full-time 0–5

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty

4-4-2
82 S. Kalmurza G
20 E. Tapalov D
14 A. Martynovich D
80 E. Sorokin D
3 L. Mata D
24 A. Mrynskiy M
15 O. Arad M
4 D. Kasabulat M
55 V. Gromyko M
7 Jorginho F
9 D. Satpaev F
Bench (10)
31 D. Reimov
98 B. Aldashev
5 L. Kurgin
6 A. Sadybekov
10 G. Zaria
17 O. Baybek
25 A. Shirobokov
26 Edmilson
33 J. Stanojev
99 Ricardinho

Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois G
17 R. Asencio D
24 D. Huijsen D
4 D. Alaba D
20 F. Garcia D
14 A. Tchouameni M
19 D. Ceballos M
30 F. Mastantuono M
15 A. Guler M
7 Vinicius Junior M
10 K. Mbappe F
Bench (11)
13 A. Lunin
29 J. Navarro Jimenez
5 J. Bellingham
6 E. Camavinga
8 F. Valverde
9 Endrick
11 Rodrygo
16 G. Garcia
18 A. Carreras
21 B. Diaz
35 D. Jimenez

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Guida · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.