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Champions League
Referee: S Jablonski
Ajax
S U T T T
0–2
Full-time
Benfica
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
2,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/8 matches
Win Ø 19%
0%
38%
Points per game
0,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 19%
25%
13%
Average goals
3,8
1,9
Scored
0,3
0,9
Conceded
3,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-3,3
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,96 xG 1,17
62% Possession 38%
7 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
10 Corners 4
15 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ajax Benfica
6′
⚽ S. Dahl 0–1
R. Rios
Half-time 0–1
J. Mokio 🔁
↦ O. Wijndal
60′
Wout Weghorst 🟨
69′
74′
🟨 Samuel Dahl
K. Dolberg 🔁
↦ M. Godts
74′
O. Gloukh 🔁
↦ R. Bounida
74′
K. Fitz-Jim 🔁
↦ D. Klaassen
74′
81′
🔁 T. Araujo
↦ G. Sudakov
R. Moro 🔁
↦ Y. Regeer
83′
90′
⚽ L. Barreiro 0–2
F. Aursnes
92′
🔁 Manu
↦ V. Pavlidis
93′
🔁 R. Rego
↦ L. Barreiro
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Ajax

1 V. Jaros G
6 Y. Regeer D
37 J. Sutalo D
15 Y. Baas D
5 O. Wijndal D
4 K. Itakura M
43 R. Bounida M
18 D. Klaassen M
8 K. Taylor M
11 M. Godts M
25 W. Weghorst F
Bench (12)
12 J. Heerkens
22 R. Pasveer
2 L. Rosa
3 A. Gaaei
7 R. Moro
9 K. Dolberg
10 O. Gloukh
16 J. McConnell
17 O. Edvardsen
24 J. Mokio
28 K. Fitz-Jim
41 G. Alders

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
4 A. Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
20 R. Rios M
5 E. Barrenechea M
8 F. Aursnes M
18 L. Barreiro M
10 G. Sudakov M
14 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (12)
24 S. Soares
3 R. Obrador
9 F. Ivanovic
16 Manu
21 A. Schjelderup
25 G. Prestianni
39 H. Araujo
44 T. Araujo
66 J. Wynder
67 R. Rego
68 J. Veloso
84 J. Rego

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Jablonski · 136 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.