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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Brentford

T S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

40%

30%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,35 xG 0,44

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 13. · Newcastle 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+15	+13.2	26
2	Chelsea	11	6	2	3	+10	+6.9	20
3	Man City	10	6	1	3	+12	+8.2	19
4	Sunderland	11	5	4	2	+4	-2.9	19
5	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+9	-4.2	18
6	Liverpool	10	6	0	4	+4	+4.9	18
7	Bournemouth	10	5	3	2	+3	-1.6	18
8	Man United	11	5	3	3	+1	+1.7	18
9	Crystal Palace	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.2	16
10	Brighton	10	4	3	3	+2	+4.0	15
11	Everton	11	4	3	4	-1	-0.8	15
12	Aston Villa	10	4	3	3	-1	-5.2	15
13	Brentford	10	4	1	5	-2	+1.2	13
14	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-1	+3.7	12
15	Fulham	11	3	2	6	-4	-3.8	11
16	Leeds	10	3	2	5	-8	+0.1	11
17	Burnley	11	3	1	7	-8	-15.7	10
18	West Ham	11	3	1	7	-10	-4.3	10
19	Nott'm Forest	10	1	3	6	-12	-4.8	6
20	Wolves	11	0	2	9	-18	-6.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+11	+7.1	13
2	Bournemouth	5	4	1	0	+6	+2.4	13
3	Man City	5	4	0	1	+9	+6.2	12
4	Sunderland	6	3	3	0	+6	-0.5	12
5	Man United	5	4	0	1	+5	+5.3	12
6	Liverpool	5	4	0	1	+5	+2.9	12
7	Brighton	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.3	11
8	Everton	6	3	2	1	+2	+1.8	11
9	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+5	+0.3	10
10	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.6	10
11	Brentford	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.4	10
12	Aston Villa	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.2	10
13	Crystal Palace	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.9	9
14	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	+3.7	9
15	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.6	8
16	Burnley	5	2	1	2	+1	-6.7	7
17	West Ham	6	2	0	4	-7	-3.2	6
18	Tottenham	6	1	2	3	+0	-3.2	5
19	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.2	4
20	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+9	-1.0	13
2	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+4	+6.1	13
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+7	+3.3	10
4	Man City	5	2	1	2	+3	+2.0	7
5	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.3	7
6	Sunderland	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.4	7
7	Liverpool	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.0	6
8	Man United	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.7	6
9	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	-2	-3.0	5
10	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	-4.0	5
11	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.7	4
12	Everton	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.6	4
13	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.2	4
14	Newcastle	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.0	3
15	Brentford	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.8	3
16	Burnley	6	1	0	5	-9	-9.0	3
17	Leeds	5	1	0	4	-9	-4.5	3
18	Nott'm Forest	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
19	Fulham	6	0	1	5	-9	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.