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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Elche

S S T S S

1–3

Full-time

Villarreal

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elche Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 49%

29%

69%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

47%

50%

Both score Ø 52%

59%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,31 xG 1,52

78% Possession 22%

15 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elche 9. · Villarreal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	15	1	2	+31	+18.3	46
2	Real Madrid	18	13	3	2	+20	+21.8	42
3	Ath Madrid	18	11	4	3	+17	+8.5	37
4	Villarreal	16	11	2	3	+16	+7.8	35
5	Espanol	17	10	3	4	+5	+5.9	33
6	Betis	17	7	7	3	+10	+6.8	28
7	Celta	18	6	8	4	+4	-2.1	26
8	Ath Bilbao	19	7	3	9	-8	+6.5	24
9	Elche	17	5	7	5	+3	-4.8	22
10	Getafe	18	6	3	9	-9	-6.1	21
11	Sevilla	17	6	2	9	-2	-10.6	20
12	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-3	-4.3	19
13	Vallecano	18	4	7	7	-7	+0.8	19
14	Mallorca	17	4	6	7	-5	-10.4	18
15	Alaves	17	5	3	9	-6	-0.8	18
16	Sociedad	17	4	5	8	-4	+0.1	17
17	Valencia	18	3	7	8	-13	-4.4	16
18	Girona	17	3	6	8	-18	-11.6	15
19	Oviedo	17	2	5	10	-19	-15.3	11
20	Levante	16	2	4	10	-12	-6.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+23	+14.6	27
2	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+15	+11.9	25
3	Villarreal	9	7	1	1	+14	+6.2	22
4	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+11	+11.6	21
5	Elche	9	5	4	0	+11	+2.9	19
6	Espanol	9	6	1	2	+3	+3.2	19
7	Osasuna	9	5	2	2	+6	+2.1	17
8	Betis	9	5	1	3	+7	+5.7	16
9	Ath Bilbao	10	5	1	4	-1	+7.2	16
10	Alaves	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.3	14
11	Valencia	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.7	13
12	Mallorca	8	3	4	1	+1	-1.3	13
13	Getafe	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.0	11
14	Celta	10	2	5	3	+0	+0.6	11
15	Sevilla	8	3	1	4	+2	-0.7	10
16	Sociedad	8	3	1	4	-1	+2.2	10
17	Vallecano	8	1	6	1	+0	+4.2	9
18	Girona	9	2	3	4	-9	-6.8	9
19	Oviedo	9	1	4	4	-8	-8.2	7
20	Levante	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	6	3	1	+9	+10.2	21
2	Barcelona	9	6	1	2	+8	+3.7	19
3	Celta	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.8	15
4	Espanol	8	4	2	2	+2	+2.6	14
5	Villarreal	7	4	1	2	+2	+1.5	13
6	Betis	8	2	6	0	+3	+1.1	12
7	Ath Madrid	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.4	12
8	Sevilla	9	3	1	5	-4	-9.8	10
9	Vallecano	10	3	1	6	-7	-3.4	10
10	Getafe	10	3	1	6	-10	-3.1	10
11	Levante	9	2	2	5	-2	+0.6	8
12	Ath Bilbao	9	2	2	5	-7	-0.8	8
13	Sociedad	9	1	4	4	-3	-2.1	7
14	Girona	8	1	3	4	-9	-4.8	6
15	Mallorca	9	1	2	6	-6	-9.2	5
16	Alaves	8	1	1	6	-8	-3.1	4
17	Oviedo	8	1	1	6	-11	-7.1	4
18	Elche	8	0	3	5	-8	-7.7	3
19	Valencia	9	0	3	6	-16	-10.0	3
20	Osasuna	9	0	2	7	-9	-6.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.