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Eredivisie

Referee: Allard Lindhout

Nijmegen

S S S U S

2–2

Full-time

Ajax

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

4,3

Scored

2,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 49%

50%

47%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

81%

60%

Both score Ø 74%

75%

73%

Average goals

4,3

3,2

Scored

2,6

1,9

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,05 xG 2,02

39% Possession 61%

15 Shots 19

6 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 3. · Ajax 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	14	1	1	+30	+14.4	43
2	Feyenoord	16	11	1	4	+21	+22.0	34
3	Nijmegen	16	8	4	4	+14	+5.6	28
4	Ajax	15	7	5	3	+8	+0.4	26
5	Groningen	15	8	2	5	+5	+9.4	26
6	AZ Alkmaar	15	7	4	4	+4	+9.3	25
7	Twente	16	6	6	4	+5	+14.8	24
8	Utrecht	15	6	4	5	+6	-2.8	22
9	Heerenveen	16	6	4	6	+3	+12.6	22
10	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-14	-6.6	20
11	Excelsior	16	6	1	9	-11	-10.5	19
12	Zwolle	17	5	4	8	-17	-14.4	19
13	Go Ahead Eagles	16	4	6	6	-3	-10.4	18
14	For Sittard	16	5	3	8	-5	-4.8	18
15	Volendam	16	3	5	8	-11	-12.8	14
16	Heracles	17	4	2	11	-18	-12.1	14
17	NAC Breda	16	3	4	9	-9	-5.9	13
18	Telstar	16	2	6	8	-8	-8.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	+13	+9.5	19
2	Feyenoord	8	6	0	2	+10	+13.5	18
3	Nijmegen	7	5	1	1	+11	+6.4	16
4	Utrecht	7	5	1	1	+10	+3.0	16
5	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.6	16
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.2	14
7	Twente	8	4	2	2	+2	+9.9	14
8	For Sittard	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.3	14
9	Zwolle	8	4	1	3	-4	-2.2	13
10	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+3	+5.1	12
11	Volendam	8	3	3	2	+3	+0.4	12
12	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.2	12
13	Heerenveen	8	3	3	2	+1	+8.8	12
14	Excelsior	9	4	0	5	-2	-5.5	12
15	NAC Breda	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.6	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	2	4	-9	-3.8	11
17	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.6	10
18	Telstar	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+17	+4.9	24
2	Feyenoord	8	5	1	2	+11	+8.5	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.2	13
4	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
5	Groningen	7	4	0	3	-2	+2.2	12
6	Twente	8	2	4	2	+3	+4.9	10
7	Ajax	7	2	4	1	+2	-4.2	10
8	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
9	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.7	9
10	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
11	Utrecht	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
12	Go Ahead Eagles	9	1	3	5	-6	-10.1	6
13	Zwolle	9	1	3	5	-13	-12.2	6
14	Telstar	7	1	2	4	-4	-8.3	5
15	For Sittard	8	1	1	6	-7	-9.1	4
16	Heracles	9	1	1	7	-15	-10.5	4
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-9	-9.6	2
18	Volendam	8	0	2	6	-14	-13.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.