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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas

Villarreal

S U S T T

0–2

Full-time

Barcelona

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 15/17 matches

Win Ø 78%

73%

82%

Points per game

2,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

53%

88%

Both score Ø 59%

47%

71%

Average goals

2,9

4,1

Scored

2,1

2,9

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,66 xG 2,72

21% Possession 79%

14 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 10

6 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 4. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	1	2	+29	+17.2	43
2	Real Madrid	18	13	3	2	+20	+21.8	42
3	Ath Madrid	18	11	4	3	+17	+8.5	37
4	Villarreal	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.8	35
5	Espanol	16	9	3	4	+4	+6.5	30
6	Betis	16	6	7	3	+6	+4.9	25
7	Celta	17	5	8	4	+1	-2.9	23
8	Ath Bilbao	17	7	2	8	-7	+5.0	23
9	Sevilla	17	6	2	9	-2	-10.6	20
10	Getafe	16	6	2	8	-5	-4.1	20
11	Elche	16	4	7	5	-1	-6.3	19
12	Osasuna	17	5	3	9	-3	-3.5	18
13	Vallecano	16	4	6	6	-3	+2.1	18
14	Mallorca	17	4	6	7	-5	-10.4	18
15	Alaves	17	5	3	9	-6	-0.8	18
16	Sociedad	17	4	5	8	-4	+0.1	17
17	Valencia	17	3	7	7	-10	-3.6	16
18	Girona	17	3	6	8	-18	-11.6	15
19	Oviedo	17	2	5	10	-19	-15.3	11
20	Levante	16	2	4	10	-12	-6.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+23	+14.6	27
2	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+15	+11.9	25
3	Villarreal	8	7	1	0	+16	+7.3	22
4	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+11	+11.6	21
5	Espanol	9	6	1	2	+3	+3.2	19
6	Elche	8	4	4	0	+7	+1.5	16
7	Osasuna	8	5	1	2	+6	+2.9	16
8	Ath Bilbao	9	5	1	3	+0	+6.5	16
9	Alaves	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.3	14
10	Betis	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.8	13
11	Valencia	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.7	13
12	Mallorca	8	3	4	1	+1	-1.3	13
13	Getafe	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.0	11
14	Sevilla	8	3	1	4	+2	-0.7	10
15	Sociedad	8	3	1	4	-1	+2.2	10
16	Girona	9	2	3	4	-9	-6.8	9
17	Vallecano	7	1	5	1	+0	+4.1	8
18	Celta	9	1	5	3	-3	-0.1	8
19	Oviedo	9	1	4	4	-8	-8.2	7
20	Levante	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	6	3	1	+9	+10.2	21
2	Barcelona	8	5	1	2	+6	+2.6	16
3	Celta	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.8	15
4	Villarreal	7	4	1	2	+2	+1.5	13
5	Betis	8	2	6	0	+3	+1.1	12
6	Ath Madrid	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.4	12
7	Espanol	7	3	2	2	+1	+3.3	11
8	Vallecano	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.0	10
9	Sevilla	9	3	1	5	-4	-9.8	10
10	Getafe	8	3	0	5	-6	-1.1	9
11	Levante	9	2	2	5	-2	+0.6	8
12	Sociedad	9	1	4	4	-3	-2.1	7
13	Ath Bilbao	8	2	1	5	-7	-1.5	7
14	Girona	8	1	3	4	-9	-4.8	6
15	Mallorca	9	1	2	6	-6	-9.2	5
16	Alaves	8	1	1	6	-8	-3.1	4
17	Oviedo	8	1	1	6	-11	-7.1	4
18	Elche	8	0	3	5	-8	-7.7	3
19	Valencia	8	0	3	5	-13	-9.3	3
20	Osasuna	9	0	2	7	-9	-6.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.