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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Man City
T S S T S
2–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,8
3,3
Scored
2,8
2,5
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 51%
38%
63%
Points per game
1,4
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
75%
75%
Both score Ø 57%
50%
63%
Average goals
4,0
4,0
Scored
2,3
2,5
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,60 xG 3,30
54% Possession 46%
11 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 6
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

17. Apr -24 Man City – Real Madrid 1–1 9. Apr -24 Real Madrid – Man City 3–3 17. May -23 Man City – Real Madrid 4–0 9. May -23 Real Madrid – Man City 1–1

Match report

Man City Real Madrid
1–0 E. Haaland ⚽
J. Gvardiol
19′
P. Foden 🔁
↦ J. Grealish
30′
Half-time 1–0
R. Lewis 🔁
↦ M. Akanji
46′
60′
⚽ K. Mbappé 1–1
Dani Ceballos
M. Kovačić 🔁
↦ N. Aké
61′
2–1 E. Haaland ⚽
80′
81′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ Dani Ceballos
Omar Marmoush 🔁
↦ Savinho
84′
İ. Gündoğan 🔁
↦ K. De Bruyne
84′
84′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Rodrygo
86′
⚽ Brahim Díaz 2–2
92′
🔁 Fran García
↦ K. Mbappé
92′
⚽ J. Bellingham 2–3
Vinícius Júnior
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Man City

4-1-4-1
31 Ederson G
25 M. Akanji D
3 Rúben Dias D
6 N. Aké D
24 J. Gvardiol D
5 J. Stones M
26 Savinho M
17 K. De Bruyne M
20 Bernardo Silva M
10 J. Grealish M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (12)
47 P. Foden
82 R. Lewis
8 M. Kovačić
7 Omar Marmoush
19 İ. Gündoğan
14 Nico González
27 Matheus Nunes
87 J. McAtee
75 N. O'Reilly
45 A. Khusanov
18 S. Ortega
11 J. Doku

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
14 A. Tchouaméni D
35 Raúl Asencio D
23 F. Mendy D
11 Rodrygo M
6 E. Camavinga M
19 Dani Ceballos M
5 J. Bellingham M
9 K. Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
10 L. Modrić
21 Brahim Díaz
20 Fran García
34 Sergio Mestre
36 Chema Andrés
16 Endrick
39 Lorenzo Aguado
31 Jacobo Ramón
13 A. Lunin
18 Jesús Vallejo
15 A. Güler
30 Gonzalo García

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.