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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Man City
S U S T U
1–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 65%
56%
73%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
56%
73%
Both score Ø 50%
44%
55%
Average goals
3,0
3,6
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,91 xG 2,93
47% Possession 53%
22 Shots 14
8 Shots on target 7
6 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 7
9 Corners 6
2 Offside 3
6 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Mar -26 Real Madrid – Man City 3–0 10. Dec -25 Real Madrid – Man City 1–2 19. Feb -25 Real Madrid – Man City 3–1 11. Feb -25 Man City – Real Madrid 2–3 17. Apr -24 Man City – Real Madrid 1–1

Match report

Man City Real Madrid
Bernardo Silva 🟥
20′
20′
ℹ️ Vinicius Júnior
VAR: Penalty confirmed
22′
⚽ Vinicius Junior 0–1
1–1 E. Haaland ⚽
41′
Half-time 1–1
N. Ake 🔁
↦ T. Reijnders
46′
M. Guehi 🔁
↦ R. Dias
46′
46′
🔁 A. Lunin
↦ T. Courtois
Abdukodir Khusanov 🟨
49′
A. Semenyo 🔁
↦ M. Nunes
57′
O. Marmoush 🔁
↦ E. Haaland
57′
69′
🔁 K. Mbappe
↦ B. Diaz
Nico 🔁
↦ Rodri
74′
74′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ A. Guler
74′
🔁 M. A. Moran
↦ T. Pitarch
76′
🟨 Kylian Mbappé
80′
🟨 Trent Alexander-Arnold
83′
🔁 D. Carvajal
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
90′
⚽ Vinicius Junior 1–2
A. Tchouameni
92′
ℹ️ Vinicius Júnior
VAR: Goal cancelled
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Man City

4-2-3-1
25 G. Donnarumma G
27 M. Nunes D
45 A. Khusanov D
3 R. Dias D
21 R. Ait-Nouri D
20 B. Silva M
16 Rodri M
10 R. Cherki M
4 T. Reijnders M
11 J. Doku M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (12)
1 J. Trafford
42 A. Semenyo
82 R. Lewis
33 N. O'Reilly
8 M. Kovacic
5 J. Stones
6 N. Ake
47 P. Foden
15 M. Guehi
7 O. Marmoush
14 Nico
26 Savinho

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
22 A. Rudiger D
24 D. Huijsen D
20 F. Garcia D
8 F. Valverde M
45 T. Pitarch M
14 A. Tchouameni M
15 A. Guler M
21 B. Diaz F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (12)
13 A. Lunin
4 D. Alaba
2 D. Carvajal
10 K. Mbappe
6 E. Camavinga
18 A. Carreras
37 M. A. Moran
30 F. Mastantuono
38 C. Palacios
27 D. Aguado
16 G. Garcia
28 J. Cestero Sancho

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.