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Europa League
Referee: A Taylor
Ludogorets
T S U T T
5–1
Full-time
FC Astana
U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ludogorets FC Astana
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,3
0,8
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,8
This season — Europa League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

23 Shots 4
12 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
3 Corners 1
10 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Aug -23 FC Astana – Ludogorets 2–1

Match report

Ludogorets FC Astana
1–0 B. Tekpetey ⚽
A. Witry
25′
27′
🟨 Max Ebong
29′
⚽ D. Darboe 1–1
F. Ourega
34′
🟨 Abat Aimbetov
43′
🟨 Dušan Jovančić
Half-time 1–1
I. Plastun 🔁
↦ O. Verdon
46′
2–1 J. Piotrowski ⚽
M. Heister
47′
3–1 B. Tekpetey ⚽
Rwan Cruz
50′
52′
🔁 M. Tomasov
↦ A. Aymbetov
Claude Gonçalves 🟨
54′
4–1 J. Piotrowski ⚽
58′
62′
🔁 I. Kuat
↦ M. Ebong
62′
🔁 T. Dosmagambetov
↦ S. Lončar
5–1 K. Despodov ⚽
Rwan Cruz
67′
Pedro Naressi 🔁
↦ Claude Gonçalves
70′
76′
🟨 Dušan Jovančić
76′
🟥 Dušan Jovančić
S. Delev 🔁
↦ K. Despodov
78′
Caio Vidal 🔁
↦ B. Tekpetey
78′
80′
🔁 M. Gabyshev
↦ F. Ourega
80′
🔁 A. Beisebekov
↦ D. Darboe
M. Tissera 🔁
↦ Rwan Cruz
81′
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-3-3
12 S. Sluga G
16 A. Witry D
24 O. Verdon D
26 N. Sonko-Sundberg D
44 M. Heister D
8 Claude Gonçalves M
6 J. Piotrowski M
82 I. Yordanov M
37 B. Tekpetey F
99 Rwan Cruz F
11 K. Despodov M
Bench (12)
32 I. Plastun
30 Pedro Naressi
90 S. Delev
77 Caio Vidal
10 M. Tissera
7 Rick
22 F. Russo
69 P. Pepelyashev
88 T. Nedelev
5 G. Terziev
1 S. Padt
64 D. Yankov

Coach: I. Petev

FC Astana

3-4-3
93 J. Čondrić G
29 D. Jovančić M
22 A. Marochkin D
33 Ž. Tomašević D
13 K. Hovhannisyan D
7 M. Ebong M
44 S. Lončar M
6 Y. Vorogovskiy D
88 D. Darboe F
17 A. Aymbetov F
23 F. Ourega M
Bench (12)
10 M. Tomasov
8 I. Kuat
27 T. Dosmagambetov
5 M. Gabyshev
15 A. Beisebekov
55 A. Zarutskiy
11 A. Darabayev
21 E. Astanov
20 V. Prokopenko
31 D. Podymskiy
72 S. Basmanov
45 A. Amanović

Coach: G. Babayan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.