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Serie A

Referee: M Marchetti

Napoli

U U S U U

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,8

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 56%

76%

36%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

52%

42%

Both score Ø 49%

42%

55%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,96 xG 1,14

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	33	25	5	3	+46	+10.6	80
2	Juventus	34	20	6	8	+24	+6.8	66
3	Lazio	34	19	7	8	+26	+2.1	64
4	Inter	34	20	3	11	+27	+18.8	63
5	Milan	34	17	10	7	+16	+3.4	61
6	Atalanta	34	17	7	10	+15	+3.1	58
7	Roma	34	17	7	10	+12	+6.8	58
8	Fiorentina	33	12	10	11	+6	+6.3	46
9	Monza	34	12	10	12	-3	-3.2	46
10	Torino	34	12	10	12	-3	+2.8	46
11	Bologna	33	12	9	12	-1	-2.0	45
12	Udinese	33	10	13	10	+2	-2.9	43
13	Sassuolo	33	12	7	14	-9	+3.2	43
14	Salernitana	33	7	14	12	-13	-10.7	35
15	Empoli	33	8	11	14	-14	-9.2	35
16	Lecce	33	7	10	16	-12	+0.7	31
17	Verona	32	6	8	18	-24	-6.1	26
18	Spezia	33	5	11	17	-28	-6.8	26
19	Cremonese	34	4	12	18	-28	-10.1	24
20	Sampdoria	33	3	8	22	-39	-13.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	3	2	+22	+4.4	39
2	Milan	17	11	4	2	+15	+4.5	37
3	Napoli	16	11	3	2	+20	+4.0	36
4	Inter	17	12	0	5	+20	+9.5	36
5	Lazio	17	10	3	4	+13	+1.3	33
6	Roma	17	10	2	5	+12	+2.1	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
8	Atalanta	17	8	3	6	+7	+5.2	27
9	Fiorentina	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.2	27
10	Sassuolo	16	8	3	5	+4	+1.7	27
11	Udinese	16	5	9	2	+10	+3.7	24
12	Monza	17	6	5	6	+2	+1.0	23
13	Empoli	16	6	4	6	-3	-2.5	22
14	Salernitana	17	5	6	6	+2	-5.5	21
15	Torino	17	5	6	6	-3	+2.1	21
16	Verona	17	6	2	9	-11	-3.9	20
17	Lecce	16	3	7	6	-4	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	16	3	7	6	-10	-5.7	16
19	Cremonese	17	3	4	10	-14	-4.6	13
20	Sampdoria	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	17	14	2	1	+26	+6.6	44
2	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+13	+0.8	31
3	Atalanta	17	9	4	4	+8	-2.1	31
4	Inter	17	8	3	6	+7	+9.3	27
5	Juventus	17	8	3	6	+2	+2.4	27
6	Roma	17	7	5	5	+0	+4.8	26
7	Torino	17	7	4	6	+0	+0.7	25
8	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	-1.2	24
9	Monza	17	6	5	6	-5	-4.1	23
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	+1	-0.9	19
11	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
12	Bologna	16	5	2	9	-11	-1.5	17
13	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-13	+1.5	16
14	Lecce	17	4	3	10	-8	-2.0	15
15	Salernitana	16	2	8	6	-15	-5.2	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	17	1	8	8	-14	-5.5	11
18	Spezia	17	2	4	11	-18	-1.1	10
19	Sampdoria	16	2	3	11	-23	-11.2	9
20	Verona	15	0	6	9	-13	-2.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.