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Serie A
Referee: D Paterna
Fiorentina
U S U T T
2–0
Full-time
Udinese
T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Udinese
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches
Win Ø 34%
35%
32%
Points per game
1,4
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
41%
53%
Both score Ø 55%
53%
56%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,15 xG 0,28
45% Possession 55%
18 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Udinese 10.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Napoli 34 26 5 3 +47 +11.4 83
2 Inter 35 21 3 11 +29 +17.9 66
3 Juventus 34 20 6 8 +24 +6.8 66
4 Lazio 35 19 8 8 +26 +2.4 65
5 Milan 35 17 10 8 +14 +2.6 61
6 Atalanta 35 17 7 11 +14 +3.7 58
7 Roma 34 17 7 10 +12 +6.8 58
8 Torino 35 13 10 12 -2 +4.2 49
9 Fiorentina 34 12 10 12 +5 +5.5 46
10 Udinese 34 11 13 10 +4 -2.8 46
11 Bologna 34 12 10 12 -1 -1.8 46
12 Monza 34 12 10 12 -3 -3.2 46
13 Sassuolo 35 12 8 15 -11 +3.9 44
14 Salernitana 35 8 14 13 -13 -13.0 38
15 Empoli 34 9 11 14 -13 -7.6 38
16 Lecce 35 7 11 17 -13 +0.5 32
17 Verona 34 7 8 19 -24 -7.5 29
18 Spezia 34 6 11 17 -26 -6.0 29
19 Cremonese 34 4 12 18 -28 -10.1 24
20 Sampdoria 34 3 8 23 -41 -13.7 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Fiorentina Udinese
1–0 G. Castrovilli
7′
42′
🟨 Festy Ebosele
Half-time 1–0
46′
🟨 Walace
N. González 🔁
↦ J. Ikoné
46′
Cristiano Biraghi 🟨
49′
58′
🟨 Marvin Zeegelaar
A. Terzić 🔁
↦ C. Biraghi
60′
R. Mandragora 🔁
↦ A. Duncan
60′
61′
🔁 D. Udogie
↦ F. Ebosele
62′
🔁 T. Arslan
↦ M. Zeegelaar
Nikola Milenković 🟨
69′
G. Bonaventura 🔁
↦ A. Barák
71′
Lorenzo Venuti 🟨
73′
Dodô 🔁
↦ L. Venuti
75′
78′
🔁 Vivaldo Semedo
↦ S. Lovrić
84′
🔁 S. Pafundi
↦ L. Samardžić
2–0 G. Bonaventura
G. Castrovilli
90′
Giacomo Bonaventura 🟥
96′
96′
🟥 Rodrigo Becão
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
31 M. Cerofolini G
23 L. Venuti D
4 N. Milenković D
98 Igor D
3 C. Biraghi D
10 G. Castrovilli M
32 A. Duncan M
11 J. Ikoné M
72 A. Barák M
77 J. Brekalo M
99 C. Kouamé F
Bench (15)
22 N. González
15 A. Terzić
38 R. Mandragora
5 G. Bonaventura
2 Dodô
7 L. Jović
48 M. Kayode
33 R. Sottil
1 P. Terracciano
42 A. Bianco
16 L. Ranieri
8 R. Saponara
28 L. Martínez
51 T. Vannucchi
34 S. Amrabat

Coach: V. Italiano

Udinese

3-5-1-1
1 M. Silvestri G
50 Rodrigo Becão D
29 J. Bijol D
18 N. Pérez D
2 F. Ebosele M
37 R. Pereyra M
11 Walace M
4 S. Lovrić M
8 M. Zeegelaar M
24 L. Samardžić F
30 I. Nestorovski F
Bench (10)
13 D. Udogie
5 T. Arslan
39 Vivaldo Semedo
80 S. Pafundi
26 F. Thauvin
14 J. Abankwah
99 E. Piana
15 Leonardo Buta
20 D. Padelli
3 A. Masina

Coach: A. Sottil

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,99
U
3,57
B
3,78
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,87
U2,5 ✓
1,95
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Paterna · 16 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,44 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.