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Premier League

Referee: Mike Jones

Watford

T S S T U

0–3

Full-time

Arsenal

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

25%

63%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

25%

38%

Both score Ø 32%

38%

25%

Average goals

1,6

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

33% Possession 67%

8 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Arsenal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+16	21
2	Man United	9	6	1	2	+7	19
3	West Ham	9	5	2	2	+8	17
4	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+6	16
5	Leicester	9	4	4	1	+2	16
6	Crystal Palace	9	5	0	4	+2	15
7	Tottenham	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+3	13
9	Everton	9	3	4	2	+1	13
10	Liverpool	9	3	4	2	-2	13
11	Chelsea	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	West Brom	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	Swansea	8	2	4	2	+0	10
14	Watford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
15	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-2	9
17	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4
19	Sunderland	9	0	3	6	-11	3
20	Newcastle	8	0	3	5	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	4	0	1	+13	12
2	Man United	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Southampton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
7	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
10	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
11	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Sunderland	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+2	9
6	Man United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Everton	4	2	2	0	+4	8
8	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Southampton	4	1	3	0	+2	6
10	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-1	6
11	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Norwich	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Stoke	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Swansea	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.