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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

Groningen

T S S T T

2–1

Full-time

Willem II

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Groningen Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 26%

38%

13%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

25%

38%

Both score Ø 32%

25%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Groningen 10. · Willem II 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	6	1	1	+15	19
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+7	19
3	Heracles	8	6	0	2	+10	18
4	PSV Eindhoven	8	5	2	1	+11	17
5	Zwolle	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Vitesse	8	4	2	2	+11	14
7	Nijmegen	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Roda	8	3	3	2	+0	12
9	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Groningen	8	3	1	4	-5	10
11	Utrecht	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Excelsior	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Heerenveen	8	1	4	3	-4	7
14	Willem II	8	1	3	4	-4	6
15	Den Haag	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Twente	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Cambuur	8	0	4	4	-16	4
18	De Graafschap	8	0	1	7	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Heracles	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Groningen	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Zwolle	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Ajax	4	3	0	1	+8	9
7	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+5	9
8	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Roda	5	2	3	0	+3	9
10	Utrecht	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Heerenveen	4	1	3	0	+2	6
14	Willem II	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Twente	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Den Haag	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Cambuur	4	0	1	3	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	2	2	1	+6	8
3	Zwolle	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Feyenoord	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Heracles	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
8	Cambuur	4	0	3	1	-3	3
9	Roda	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Den Haag	4	1	0	3	-5	3
11	Vitesse	4	0	2	2	-3	2
12	Willem II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
13	Twente	5	0	2	3	-5	2
14	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-4	1
15	Excelsior	4	0	1	3	-6	1
16	Heerenveen	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	De Graafschap	4	0	0	4	-9	0
18	Groningen	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.