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Bundesliga
Referee: Felix Brych
Wolfsburg
U S T U T
4–2
Full-time
Hoffenheim
T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolfsburg Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 26%
38%
13%
Points per game
1,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
38%
75%
Both score Ø 69%
50%
88%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

50% Possession 50%
17 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Wolfsburg 8. · Hoffenheim 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 8 8 0 0 +24 24
2 Dortmund 9 6 2 1 +13 20
3 Schalke 04 8 5 1 2 +2 16
4 Hertha 8 4 2 2 +3 14
5 FC Koln 8 4 2 2 +1 14
6 FC Ingolstadt 04 8 4 2 2 +0 14
7 Leverkusen 8 4 1 3 -1 13
8 Wolfsburg 8 3 3 2 +0 12
9 Mainz 9 4 0 5 -1 12
10 Darmstadt 8 2 4 2 -2 10
11 Hamburg 8 3 1 4 -5 10
12 Ein Frankfurt 8 2 3 3 +2 9
13 M'gladbach 8 3 0 5 -4 9
14 Werder Bremen 8 2 1 5 -6 7
15 Hoffenheim 8 1 3 4 -4 6
16 Augsburg 8 1 2 5 -5 5
17 Hannover 8 1 2 5 -9 5
18 Stuttgart 8 1 1 6 -8 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Wolfsburg Hoffenheim
1–0 M. Kruse
J. Draxler
1′
2–0 B. Dost
J. Draxler
7′
22′
🔁 Jin-Su Kim
↦ P. Kaderábek
29′
J. Toljan 2–1
E. Polanski
Half-time 2–2
54′
J. Schmid 2–2
Daniel Caligiuri 🟨
57′
Christian Träsch 🟨
59′
3–2 M. Kruse
Luiz Gustavo
62′
Vieirinha 🔁
↦ J. Draxler
67′
Luiz Gustavo 🟨
71′
A. Schürrle 🔁
↦ B. Dost
79′
4–2 M. Kruse
A. Schürrle
83′
84′
🔁 M. Uth
↦ S. Rudy
84′
🔁 Á. Szalai
↦ E. Vargas
Vieirinha 🟨
85′
M. Arnold 🔁
↦ Luiz Gustavo
87′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Wolfsburg

1 D. Benaglio
25 Naldo D
15 C. Träsch M
18 Dante D
34 R. Rodriguez D
22 Luiz Gustavo M
7 D. Caligiuri M
23 J. Guilavogui M
10 J. Draxler M
11 M. Kruse F
12 B. Dost F
Bench (7)
8 Vieirinha
17 A. Schürrle
27 M. Arnold
4 M. Schäfer
5 T. Klose
24 S. Jung
28 K. Casteels

Hoffenheim

1 O. Baumann G
12 T. Strobl M
4 E. Bičakčić D
3 P. Kaderábek M
15 J. Toljan D
25 N. Süle D
8 E. Polanski M
9 E. Vargas F
6 S. Rudy M
10 J. Schmid M
31 K. Volland F
Bench (7)
20 Jin-Su Kim
19 M. Uth
28 Á. Szalai
5 F. Schär
13 J. Grahl
14 T. Elyounoussi
22 K. Kuranyi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Felix Brych · 71 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.