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Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Welz
Hamburg
S U S T T
0–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
1,8
2,2
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 44%
38%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
63%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
25%
25%
Average goals
2,6
2,1
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,6
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%
8 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 5
3 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
6 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hamburg 11. · Leverkusen 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 8 8 0 0 +24 24
2 Dortmund 9 6 2 1 +13 20
3 Schalke 04 8 5 1 2 +2 16
4 Hertha 8 4 2 2 +3 14
5 FC Koln 8 4 2 2 +1 14
6 FC Ingolstadt 04 8 4 2 2 +0 14
7 Leverkusen 8 4 1 3 -1 13
8 Wolfsburg 8 3 3 2 +0 12
9 Mainz 9 4 0 5 -1 12
10 Darmstadt 8 2 4 2 -2 10
11 Hamburg 8 3 1 4 -5 10
12 Ein Frankfurt 8 2 3 3 +2 9
13 M'gladbach 8 3 0 5 -4 9
14 Werder Bremen 8 2 1 5 -6 7
15 Hoffenheim 8 1 3 4 -4 6
16 Augsburg 8 1 2 5 -5 5
17 Hannover 8 1 2 5 -9 5
18 Stuttgart 8 1 1 6 -8 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hamburg Leverkusen
Aaron Hunt 🟨
26′
Pierre-Michel Lasogga 🟨
31′
Albin Ekdal 🟨
38′
Half-time 0–0
Ivo Iličević 🟨
59′
60′
🔁 T. Jedvaj
↦ Ö. Toprak
63′
🔁 A. Mehmedi
↦ J. Brandt
M. Gregoritsch 🔁
↦ N. Müller
66′
74′
🟨 Javier Hernández
75′
🟨 Tin Jedvaj
77′
🔁 H. Çalhanoğlu
↦ G. Donati
S. Schipplock 🔁
↦ P. Lasogga
78′
M. Diaz 🔁
↦ A. Hunt
83′
Marcelo Díaz 🟨
88′
Emir Spahić 🟨
90′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Hamburg

15 R. Adler
5 J. Djourou
4 E. Spahić D
2 D. Diekmeier D
22 M. Ostrzolek M
7 I. Iličević M
14 A. Hunt M
20 A. Ekdal M
27 N. Müller M
8 L. Holtby M
10 P. Lasogga F
Bench (7)
23 M. Gregoritsch
9 S. Schipplock
21 M. Diaz
1 J. Drobný
3 Cleber Reis
11 I. Olić
24 G. Sakai

Leverkusen

1 B. Leno G
17 S. Boenisch
5 K. Papadopoulos D
21 Ö. Toprak D
26 G. Donati D
4 J. Tah D
38 K. Bellarabi M
23 C. Kramer M
19 J. Brandt M
11 S. Kießling F
7 J. Hernández F
Bench (7)
16 T. Jedvaj
14 A. Mehmedi
10 H. Çalhanoğlu
2 André Ramalho
25 D. Kresic
35 V. Yurchenko
37 M. Frey

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tobias Welz · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.