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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Southampton

U S S T T

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,7

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 22%

36%

Points per game

1,4

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%

23 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 11. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	9	2	4	+14	29
2	Leicester	14	8	5	1	+8	29
3	Man United	14	8	4	2	+10	28
4	Arsenal	14	8	3	3	+12	27
5	Tottenham	14	6	7	1	+13	25
6	Liverpool	14	6	5	3	+3	23
7	Crystal Palace	14	7	1	6	+5	22
8	West Ham	14	6	4	4	+4	22
9	Stoke	15	6	4	5	-1	22
10	Everton	14	5	6	3	+8	21
11	Southampton	14	5	5	4	+3	20
12	Watford	14	5	4	5	-1	19
13	West Brom	14	5	3	6	-5	18
14	Chelsea	14	4	3	7	-6	15
15	Swansea	14	3	5	6	-5	14
16	Norwich	14	3	4	7	-8	13
17	Sunderland	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Bournemouth	14	2	4	8	-13	10
19	Newcastle	14	2	4	8	-16	10
20	Aston Villa	14	1	2	11	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	0	2	+13	18
2	Tottenham	8	4	4	0	+9	16
3	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Leicester	7	4	2	1	+2	14
5	Everton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Liverpool	7	3	2	2	-1	11
8	Southampton	7	3	1	3	+2	10
9	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	+2	10
10	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	West Ham	7	2	3	2	+1	9
13	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Sunderland	7	2	2	3	+1	8
15	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-1	8
16	Watford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	West Brom	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-1	6
19	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+8	16
2	Leicester	7	4	3	0	+6	15
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+2	14
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+3	13
5	Liverpool	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Crystal Palace	6	4	0	2	+3	12
7	Stoke	8	3	3	2	-1	12
8	Watford	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Man City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	West Brom	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Everton	7	2	4	1	+3	10
12	Southampton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
13	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+4	9
14	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Chelsea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Bournemouth	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-11	4
19	Newcastle	7	1	1	5	-15	4
20	Aston Villa	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.