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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Aston Villa

S U U T S

0–6

Full-time

Liverpool

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

4,0

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 24%

12%

36%

Points per game

0,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

36%

44%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

39% Possession 61%

6 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Liverpool 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	26	15	8	3	+19	53
2	Arsenal	26	15	6	5	+18	51
3	Tottenham	25	13	9	3	+26	48
4	Man City	25	14	5	6	+21	47
5	Man United	26	11	8	7	+9	41
6	Southampton	26	11	7	8	+10	40
7	West Ham	26	10	10	6	+9	40
8	Watford	26	10	6	10	+1	36
9	Stoke	26	10	6	10	-5	36
10	Everton	26	8	11	7	+11	35
11	Liverpool	25	9	8	8	-4	35
12	Chelsea	26	8	9	9	+2	33
13	Crystal Palace	26	9	5	12	-5	32
14	West Brom	26	8	8	10	-8	32
15	Bournemouth	26	7	7	12	-14	28
16	Swansea	26	6	9	11	-10	27
17	Norwich	26	6	6	14	-20	24
18	Newcastle	26	6	6	14	-22	24
19	Sunderland	26	6	5	15	-18	23
20	Aston Villa	25	3	7	15	-20	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	1	3	+19	28
2	Arsenal	13	8	3	2	+10	27
3	Tottenham	13	7	4	2	+14	25
4	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+8	25
5	Southampton	13	7	2	4	+10	23
6	Man United	12	6	4	2	+10	22
7	West Ham	12	5	5	2	+6	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	5	4	+5	20
9	Watford	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Newcastle	13	4	5	4	+2	17
11	Stoke	12	5	2	5	+0	17
12	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
13	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-5	17
14	Everton	14	4	4	6	+4	16
15	Norwich	13	4	4	5	-2	16
16	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-3	16
17	Sunderland	13	4	3	6	+1	15
18	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-4	14
19	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-6	13
20	Aston Villa	12	2	4	6	-4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	8	4	2	+11	28
2	Arsenal	13	7	3	3	+8	24
3	Tottenham	12	6	5	1	+12	23
4	West Ham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
5	Everton	12	4	7	1	+7	19
6	Man City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
9	Watford	13	5	3	5	-1	18
10	Crystal Palace	12	5	3	4	-1	18
11	Liverpool	13	5	3	5	-3	18
12	Southampton	13	4	5	4	+0	17
13	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-5	16
14	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	15
15	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Swansea	12	2	4	6	-5	10
17	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-18	8
18	Sunderland	13	2	2	9	-19	8
19	Newcastle	13	2	1	10	-24	7
20	Aston Villa	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.