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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Stoke

T T T S S

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 32%

41%

23%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

44%

54%

Both score Ø 42%

37%

46%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

9 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 9. · Newcastle 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	28	16	9	3	+20	57
2	Tottenham	27	15	9	3	+28	54
3	Arsenal	27	15	6	6	+17	51
4	Man City	26	14	5	7	+20	47
5	Man United	27	12	8	7	+10	44
6	West Ham	27	11	10	6	+10	43
7	Southampton	28	11	7	10	+7	40
8	Chelsea	28	10	9	9	+4	39
9	Stoke	27	11	6	10	-4	39
10	Everton	27	9	11	7	+13	38
11	Liverpool	26	10	8	8	+2	38
12	Watford	27	10	7	10	+1	37
13	West Brom	28	9	9	10	-7	36
14	Crystal Palace	28	9	6	13	-6	33
15	Bournemouth	28	8	8	12	-12	32
16	Swansea	27	6	9	12	-11	27
17	Sunderland	28	6	6	16	-19	24
18	Norwich	28	6	6	16	-22	24
19	Newcastle	26	6	6	14	-22	24
20	Aston Villa	28	3	7	18	-29	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	8	5	1	+9	29
2	Man City	14	9	1	4	+18	28
3	Tottenham	14	8	4	2	+15	28
4	Arsenal	13	8	3	2	+10	27
5	Man United	13	7	4	2	+11	25
6	Southampton	14	7	2	5	+9	23
7	West Ham	13	6	5	2	+7	23
8	Chelsea	14	5	5	4	+5	20
9	Stoke	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	Watford	14	5	4	5	+2	19
11	West Brom	14	5	4	5	-2	19
12	Newcastle	13	4	5	4	+2	17
13	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
14	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-5	17
15	Everton	14	4	4	6	+4	16
16	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	16
17	Norwich	14	4	4	6	-3	16
18	Bournemouth	14	4	4	6	-4	16
19	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-4	14
20	Aston Villa	14	2	4	8	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	8	4	2	+11	28
2	Tottenham	13	7	5	1	+13	26
3	Arsenal	14	7	3	4	+7	24
4	Everton	13	5	7	1	+9	22
5	Liverpool	14	6	3	5	+3	21
6	West Ham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
7	Man City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Chelsea	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
12	Watford	13	5	3	5	-1	18
13	Southampton	14	4	5	5	-2	17
14	West Brom	14	4	5	5	-5	17
15	Bournemouth	14	4	4	6	-8	16
16	Swansea	13	2	4	7	-6	10
17	Norwich	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sunderland	14	2	2	10	-20	8
19	Newcastle	13	2	1	10	-24	7
20	Aston Villa	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.