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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Bayern Munich

S U S S S

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 68%

87%

48%

Points per game

2,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

65%

57%

Both score Ø 44%

39%

48%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,4

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

78% Possession 22%

17 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Mainz 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	20	2	1	+47	62
2	Dortmund	23	17	3	3	+32	54
3	Hertha	23	11	6	6	+7	39
4	M'gladbach	23	11	3	9	+5	36
5	Mainz	23	11	3	9	+3	36
6	Leverkusen	23	10	5	8	+6	35
7	Schalke 04	23	10	5	8	+2	35
8	Wolfsburg	24	9	7	8	+5	34
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	24	8	7	9	-7	31
10	FC Koln	24	7	9	8	-5	30
11	Hamburg	23	7	7	9	-5	28
12	Stuttgart	23	8	4	11	-9	28
13	Augsburg	23	6	7	10	-7	25
14	Darmstadt	23	6	7	10	-11	25
15	Ein Frankfurt	23	5	8	10	-10	23
16	Werder Bremen	23	5	6	12	-19	21
17	Hoffenheim	23	3	9	11	-13	18
18	Hannover	24	5	2	17	-21	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	11	0	0	+33	33
2	Dortmund	11	10	1	0	+25	31
3	M'gladbach	12	8	1	3	+9	25
4	Wolfsburg	12	7	3	2	+14	24
5	Hertha	11	6	4	1	+7	22
6	Mainz	12	7	1	4	+4	22
7	Schalke 04	12	6	3	3	+3	21
8	Leverkusen	11	5	3	3	+8	18
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	5	3	4	+1	18
10	FC Koln	12	4	4	4	+0	16
11	Stuttgart	12	5	1	6	-5	16
12	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-3	14
13	Hamburg	12	3	4	5	-2	13
14	Hoffenheim	11	2	5	4	-4	11
15	Augsburg	12	2	4	6	-6	10
16	Werder Bremen	11	1	4	6	-11	7
17	Darmstadt	11	1	4	6	-11	7
18	Hannover	12	2	0	10	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	2	1	+14	29
2	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+7	23
3	Darmstadt	12	5	3	4	+0	18
4	Hertha	12	5	2	5	+0	17
5	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	-2	17
6	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	-1	15
7	Hamburg	11	4	3	4	-3	15
8	Mainz	11	4	2	5	-1	14
9	Schalke 04	11	4	2	5	-1	14
10	FC Koln	12	3	5	4	-5	14
11	Werder Bremen	12	4	2	6	-8	14
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	3	4	5	-8	13
13	Stuttgart	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	M'gladbach	11	3	2	6	-4	11
15	Hannover	12	3	2	7	-10	11
16	Wolfsburg	12	2	4	6	-9	10
17	Ein Frankfurt	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Hoffenheim	12	1	4	7	-9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.