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Ligue 1

Referee: Clement Turpin

Toulouse

S T S S U

2–3

Full-time

Lyon

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 34%

21%

47%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

47%

50%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

34% Possession 66%

9 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Lyon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	27	5	2	+71	86
2	Monaco	34	15	13	6	+9	58
3	Nice	35	16	9	10	+15	57
4	Lyon	34	16	8	10	+20	56
5	St Etienne	34	16	6	12	+6	54
6	Lille	34	13	13	8	+10	52
7	Rennes	34	13	12	9	+5	51
8	Angers	34	13	10	11	+5	49
9	Caen	34	14	4	16	-15	46
10	Nantes	34	11	11	12	-7	44
11	Lorient	34	10	13	11	-6	43
12	Bastia	34	12	7	15	-7	43
13	Bordeaux	34	10	13	11	-11	43
14	Guingamp	34	11	9	14	-7	42
15	Marseille	34	8	16	10	+4	40
16	Montpellier	34	11	7	16	-2	40
17	Reims	35	9	9	17	-14	36
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	34	7	13	14	-16	34
19	Toulouse	34	7	12	15	-11	33
20	Troyes	34	3	8	23	-49	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	3	1	+39	42
2	Nice	18	11	2	5	+14	35
3	Lyon	17	10	4	3	+20	34
4	Bastia	18	10	2	6	+8	32
5	Lille	17	9	4	4	+10	31
6	St Etienne	16	9	3	4	+9	30
7	Monaco	17	8	6	3	+8	30
8	Bordeaux	17	7	6	4	+4	27
9	Angers	17	6	8	3	+7	26
10	Nantes	17	7	5	5	+0	26
11	Caen	17	8	2	7	-5	26
12	Lorient	17	6	7	4	+5	25
13	Guingamp	17	6	6	5	+4	24
14	Rennes	17	6	6	5	+1	24
15	Reims	17	6	5	6	+3	23
16	Toulouse	17	5	7	5	+8	22
17	Montpellier	17	7	0	10	-2	21
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	17	4	7	6	-6	19
19	Marseille	17	2	10	5	+2	16
20	Troyes	17	1	6	10	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	2	1	+32	44
2	Monaco	17	7	7	3	+1	28
3	Rennes	17	7	6	4	+4	27
4	Marseille	17	6	6	5	+2	24
5	St Etienne	18	7	3	8	-3	24
6	Angers	17	7	2	8	-2	23
7	Nice	17	5	7	5	+1	22
8	Lyon	17	6	4	7	+0	22
9	Lille	17	4	9	4	+0	21
10	Caen	17	6	2	9	-10	20
11	Montpellier	17	4	7	6	+0	19
12	Nantes	17	4	6	7	-7	18
13	Lorient	17	4	6	7	-11	18
14	Guingamp	17	5	3	9	-11	18
15	Bordeaux	17	3	7	7	-15	16
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	17	3	6	8	-10	15
17	Reims	18	3	4	11	-17	13
18	Bastia	16	2	5	9	-15	11
19	Toulouse	17	2	5	10	-19	11
20	Troyes	17	2	2	13	-28	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.