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La Liga

Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva

Ath Madrid

S S U S S

0–1

Full-time

Villarreal

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,2

This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 55%

61%

48%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

42%

39%

Both score Ø 39%

33%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

23 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	23	6	4	+62	75
2	Real Madrid	32	23	6	3	+48	75
3	Ath Madrid	33	20	8	5	+36	68
4	Sevilla	33	19	8	6	+19	65
5	Villarreal	33	16	9	8	+21	57
6	Ath Bilbao	33	17	5	11	+9	56
7	Sociedad	33	17	4	12	+4	55
8	Eibar	33	14	8	11	+7	50
9	Espanol	34	13	11	10	+1	50
10	Celta	32	13	5	14	-4	44
11	Alaves	33	11	11	11	-8	44
12	Valencia	33	11	7	15	-9	40
13	Las Palmas	33	10	9	14	-6	39
14	Malaga	34	10	9	15	-9	39
15	Betis	33	10	7	16	-15	37
16	La Coruna	33	7	10	16	-16	31
17	Leganes	33	6	9	18	-24	27
18	Sp Gijon	34	5	9	20	-30	24
19	Granada	34	4	8	22	-45	20
20	Osasuna	33	3	9	21	-41	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+24	40
2	Barcelona	16	12	3	1	+36	39
3	Ath Bilbao	17	12	3	2	+17	39
4	Sevilla	16	12	3	1	+17	39
5	Ath Madrid	16	12	2	2	+24	38
6	Las Palmas	17	9	6	2	+16	33
7	Villarreal	17	10	3	4	+15	33
8	Sociedad	17	9	4	4	+5	31
9	Eibar	17	9	3	5	+7	30
10	Espanol	17	8	5	4	+8	29
11	Celta	16	9	1	6	+4	28
12	Malaga	16	8	2	6	+4	26
13	Valencia	16	7	4	5	+0	25
14	Betis	17	6	6	5	+1	24
15	La Coruna	16	6	5	5	+6	23
16	Alaves	16	5	7	4	-5	22
17	Granada	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Sp Gijon	17	4	3	10	-13	15
19	Leganes	16	3	5	8	-8	14
20	Osasuna	17	1	6	10	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	11	3	3	+26	36
2	Real Madrid	15	11	2	2	+24	35
3	Ath Madrid	17	8	6	3	+12	30
4	Sevilla	17	7	5	5	+2	26
5	Villarreal	16	6	6	4	+6	24
6	Sociedad	16	8	0	8	-1	24
7	Alaves	17	6	4	7	-3	22
8	Espanol	17	5	6	6	-7	21
9	Eibar	16	5	5	6	+0	20
10	Ath Bilbao	16	5	2	9	-8	17
11	Celta	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Valencia	17	4	3	10	-9	15
13	Malaga	18	2	7	9	-13	13
14	Betis	16	4	1	11	-16	13
15	Leganes	17	3	4	10	-16	13
16	Sp Gijon	17	1	6	10	-17	9
17	Osasuna	16	2	3	11	-24	9
18	La Coruna	17	1	5	11	-22	8
19	Las Palmas	16	1	3	12	-22	6
20	Granada	17	0	4	13	-35	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.