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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Bournemouth

U T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Brighton

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,3

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

15 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 12

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 19. · Brighton 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	3	1	0	+10	10
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Watford	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Tottenham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
6	Huddersfield	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+1	6
11	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Stoke	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Southampton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Everton	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	Leicester	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-6	3
19	Bournemouth	4	0	0	4	-7	0
20	Crystal Palace	4	0	0	4	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Man City	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Man United	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.