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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Aston Villa

T T T S U

1–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 29%

22%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

61%

56%

Both score Ø 60%

58%

61%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

31% Possession 69%

8 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 18. · Arsenal 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	36	30	3	3	+48	93
2	Man City	37	25	3	9	+62	78
3	Chelsea	36	19	6	11	+15	63
4	Leicester	37	18	8	11	+28	62
5	Man United	36	17	11	8	+28	62
6	Wolves	37	15	14	8	+13	59
7	Tottenham	37	16	10	11	+14	58
8	Sheffield United	37	14	12	11	+2	54
9	Burnley	37	15	9	13	-6	54
10	Arsenal	36	13	14	9	+8	53
11	Everton	37	13	10	14	-10	49
12	Southampton	37	14	7	16	-11	49
13	Newcastle	37	11	11	15	-18	44
14	Crystal Palace	37	11	9	17	-19	42
15	Brighton	37	8	14	15	-16	38
16	West Ham	36	10	7	19	-13	37
17	Watford	37	8	10	19	-27	34
18	Aston Villa	36	8	7	21	-27	31
19	Bournemouth	37	8	7	22	-27	31
20	Norwich	37	5	6	26	-44	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	17	1	0	+34	52
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+39	44
3	Tottenham	19	12	3	4	+19	39
4	Leicester	18	11	4	3	+20	37
5	Man United	18	10	6	2	+23	36
6	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+12	33
7	Arsenal	18	9	6	3	+11	33
8	Sheffield United	19	10	3	6	+9	33
9	Wolves	19	8	7	4	+8	31
10	Everton	18	8	7	3	+5	31
11	Burnley	18	8	4	6	+2	28
12	Newcastle	18	6	8	4	+1	26
13	Watford	19	6	6	7	-5	24
14	Crystal Palace	18	6	4	8	-5	22
15	Brighton	19	5	7	7	-7	22
16	West Ham	18	6	3	9	-3	21
17	Bournemouth	19	5	6	8	-8	21
18	Aston Villa	18	6	3	9	-9	21
19	Southampton	18	5	3	10	-16	18
20	Norwich	19	4	3	12	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	13	2	3	+14	41
2	Man City	19	11	1	7	+23	34
3	Southampton	19	9	4	6	+5	31
4	Chelsea	18	9	3	6	+3	30
5	Wolves	18	7	7	4	+5	28
6	Man United	18	7	5	6	+5	26
7	Burnley	19	7	5	7	-8	26
8	Leicester	19	7	4	8	+8	25
9	Sheffield United	18	4	9	5	-7	21
10	Arsenal	18	4	8	6	-3	20
11	Crystal Palace	19	5	5	9	-14	20
12	Tottenham	18	4	7	7	-5	19
13	Everton	19	5	3	11	-15	18
14	Newcastle	19	5	3	11	-19	18
15	Brighton	18	3	7	8	-9	16
16	West Ham	18	4	4	10	-10	16
17	Aston Villa	18	2	4	12	-18	10
18	Bournemouth	18	3	1	14	-19	10
19	Watford	18	2	4	12	-22	10
20	Norwich	18	1	3	14	-26	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.